[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161016
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Jun 16 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 32W, south of 14N, moving W at 20 kt.
Convection is limited near the wave axis.

A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean with axis along
66W S of 15N, moving W at 20 kt. The wave extends S into central
Venezuela where scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted. Similar convective activity is near the northern end of the
wave axis. A diffluent pattern aloft supports this convection.

A second tropical wave is over the Caribbean Sea along 82W S of
19N, moving W at 15 kt. A cluster of moderate to strong convection
is along the wave axis over the SW Caribbean. This convective
activity is affecting the Atlantic coasts of coast of Costa Rica
and western Panama. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is also observed just E of the wave axis from 16N to 18N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coastal border of Guinea
Bissau and The Gambia near 12N17W to 07N28W. The ITCZ continues
west of a tropical wave from 06N35W to the coast of French Guiana.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection can be found from
02N to 06N between 06N and 12N, and from 06N to 10N between 45W
and 56W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1020 mb located over central Alabama extends a
ridge across the Gulf waters while a surface trough is analyzed
over western Florida. Under this weather pattern, mainly gentle
to moderate E to SE winds prevail across the basin with slight to
moderate seas. The exception is an area of fresh to locally
strong NE to E over the Bay of Campeche associated with the
thermal trough that usually develops over the Yucatan peninsula
during the evening hours, moves westward across the SW Gulf during
the overnight hours and dissipates in the SW Gulf in the morning.


For the forecast, an area of low pressure located inland over
northeastern Nicaragua is forecast to move slowly northwestward
and could emerge over the Gulf of Honduras where some development
is possible by Friday. Some development is also possible over the
southern Bay of Campeche by early next week. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over Nicaragua,
Honduras, Belize, and southeastern Mexico through the weekend.
This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through
48 hours, and also through 5 days based on latest Tropical Weather
Outlook. Otherwise, a surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters
providing mainly gentle to moderate E to SE winds, except off the
western Yucatan peninsula and in the Bay of Campeche where local
effects will support fresh to locally strong NE to E winds at
night. Slight to moderate seas are expected.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A pair of tropical waves are moving westward across the Caribbean
Sea. Please, refer to the Tropical Waves section for more details.

Recent scatterometer data provide observations of moderate to fresh
winds over most of the E and central Caribbean, and also E of the
Lesser Antilles while mainly moderate winds prevail W of 80W.
Embedded areas of fresh to strong winds are seen near Cabo Beata,
Dominican Republic, and in the southern Caribbean S of 15N between
68W and 72W, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas are generally
4-6 ft, except 5-7 ft in the central Caribbean.

For the forecast, as previously mentioned, an area of low pressure
located inland over northeastern Nicaragua is accompanied by a
disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms. Additional
development is unlikely today while the low remains inland. The
system is forecast to move slowly northwestward and could emerge
over the Gulf of Honduras where some development is possible by
Friday. Some development is also possible over the southern Bay of
Campeche by early next week. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rainfall is possible over Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and
southeastern Mexico through the weekend. Fresh to strong E to SE
winds are expected over the NW Caribbean later today through Sat
morning in association with the above mentioned area of low
pressure. Mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere,
with the exception of fresh to locally strong winds over the
southern Caribbean roughly S of 15N between 64W and 72W at night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front stretches across the western Atlantic from 31N63W to
29N74W to 30N78W. A narrow band of showers and thunderstorms is
associated with the front. Fresh to strong SW winds are noted
ahead of the front while moderate to fresh NE winds follow the
front. Seas are 4 to 7 ft based on altimeter data and buoys
observations. The remainder of the Atlantic is under the
influence of a 1024 mb high pressure located SW of the Azores
near 34N32W. The associated ridge extends westward towards the
Bahamas. North of the ridge, winds are moderate to fresh from the
SW with 5-7 ft seas. South of the ridge, winds are moderate to
fresh from the E with 5-7 ft seas. Within the ridge, winds are
light to gentle with 3-5 ft seas. In the eastern Atlantic, winds
are moderate to fresh from the NE with 5-7 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the above mentioned cold front will
move across the N waters today reaching 27N by tonight, then stall
on Fri before dissipating over the forecast waters. Fresh to strong
SW winds are expected ahead of the front and E of 65W through this
evening. A second but weaker cold front will move across the same
region on Sun. A ridge will follow the front.

$$
GR
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net