[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191000
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Jun 19 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 51WW from 16N southward,
moving westward at 15 to 20 knots. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 05N to 11N between 47W and 52W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 82W from 16N southward,
moving westward at 15 to 20 knots. Scattered moderate convection
is within 30 nm of the wave axis north of 13N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-
Bissau near 11N15W to 07N32W. The ITCZ continues from 07N32W to
07N45W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from 05N to 10N between 13W and 24W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 02N to 05N between 24W and 45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails across the Gulf waters, with a 1015 mb high
centered in the NW Gulf near 28.5N93W. Light to gentle winds are
in the vicinity of the high center, with gentle to moderate winds
prevailing elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range in the SW Gulf,
and 1-3 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, a surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters
providing mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate
seas. Winds off the western Yucatan peninsula and in the Bay of
Campeche will pulse to fresh to locally strong at night through
the middle part of next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds prevail over the south central Caribbean
with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-8 ft
range over the south central Caribbean and 4-6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area along with lower
pressure farther south over the southwest Caribbean and eastern
Pacific will support fresh to strong E to SE winds and
occasionally rough seas over mainly the south-central and
northeast Caribbean through the early part of next week. Winds
and seas will diminish through mid week as the ridge weakens.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is just north of the area over the western Atlantic
waters. A surface trough extends from 31N47W to 27N52W. High
pressure ridging prevails elsewhere, with the ridge axis
extending from 31N39W SW to 22N54W, then westward to the southern
Bahamas. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds prevail ahead of the
front north of 25N and west of 60W. Light to gentle winds are in
the vicinity of the surface trough. Gentle to moderate winds
prevail elsewhere over the waters north of 20N and west of 40W.
North of 20N and east of 40W, fresh to strong winds prevail. Over
the tropical waters south of 20N, moderate to fresh winds are
noted. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range north of 20N and west of 35W,
6-8 ft north of 15N and east of 35W, and 4-7 ft elsewhere south of
20N.

For the forecast west of 65W, a cold front will sink southward
across the waters north of 27N through Mon then stall and
dissipate across the NW Bahamas late Tue. The remnant trough will
then persist northeast of the Bahamas through mid week.

$$
AL
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