[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142230
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Jun 15 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 19W, from 15N
southward, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 09N to 11N between 19W and 22W.

A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 54W, from 14N
southward to across the border of Suriname and French Guiana,
moving W at around 15 kt. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are
possible near the wave axis, including over land.

A tropical wave is in the Caribbean Sea along 74W, from 15N
southward to across Colombia, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are occurring in the vicinity of the
tropical wave axis over portions of Colombia.

A tropical wave is in the far NW Caribbean Sea and Gulf of
Honduras along 88W from the coast of Belize southward to across
western Honduras, continuing into the tropical east Pacific Ocean,
moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
occurring over land near the tropical wave axis.

A tropical wave is along 94W from near the Isthmus of Tehuantepec
southward into the tropical east Pacific Ocean, moving W at 5 to
10 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible near the
coast of the Bay of Campeche and over adjacent land areas.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis passes through Guinea to the Atlantic
Ocean near 11N15W to 09N20W to 05N30W. The ITCZ axis extends from
05N30W to 05N42W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 04N to 08N between 21W and 27W.

The monsoon trough axis in the tropical east Pacific Ocean extends
across Costa Rica into the SW Caribbean Sea along 09N/10N to the
coast of Colombia near 10N75W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 09N to 16N between 74W and 85W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak high pressure is centered in the NE Gulf near 28N85W with a
ridge axis reaching from near Tampa Bay, Florida through the high
to the upper Texas coast. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are occurring in the west-central and SW Gulf near
the coast of Mexico due to some low level convergence. Otherwise,
fairly clear conditions are across the basin. Moderate SE return
flow extends from the Yucatan Peninsula west-northwest, with light
to gentle anticyclonic flow elsewhere. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in the
southwest half of the Gulf, and 3 ft or less elsewhere.

For the forecast, a surface ridge will persist across the basin
through Sat. This pattern will support moderate to fresh SE to S
winds across the western Gulf into early Wed. Fresh to strong
winds will pulse offshore the Yucatan Peninsula tonight and Wed
night. Winds and seas will diminish on Thu as the ridge weakens.
Looking ahead, winds and seas may increase over the south-central
Gulf by the weekend as low pressure possibly approaches from the
northwest Caribbean.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are in the eastern Caribbean
from 13N to 16N east of 68W with similar activity noted over
portions of the Greater Antilles early this evening, with
assistance from daytime heating. Fresh to strong winds are from
11N to 14N west of 76W near an area of disturbed weather east of
Nicaragua, along with seas of 6 to 10 ft. Mainly moderate to
locally fresh trades prevail elsewhere, along with seas of 4 to 7
ft.

For the forecast, weak low pressure currently located to the east
of southern Nicaragua will remain nearly stationary through Wed,
then drift slowly NW along the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras
later this week, and over the Gulf of Honduras through early Sat.
The system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation within
the next 48 hours. A surface ridge north of the area will persist
through the middle of the week. This pattern will support fresh to
occasionally strong E winds along with choppy seas between these
features through the end of the work week. The strongest winds are
expected to be in the south-central Caribbean and Gulf of
Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure of 1026 mb is located near 31N42W with a ridge axis
dominating the tropical Atlantic waters and extending west-
southwest all the way to near Daytona Beach, Florida. Mainly light
to gentle anticyclonic winds are noted from 27N to 31N between 40W
and the Atlantic coast of Florida, along with seas of 3 to 5 ft
primarily in SE swell. Moderate to locally fresh trades prevail
elsewhere, strongest from 14N to 22N between the monsoon trough
and 40W, including through the Cabo Verde Islands. Seas are 6 to 8
ft near the fresh winds, and 4 to 7 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, a surface ridge will meander east
to west along 26N through Wed night. A cold front will enter the
northern waters Wed night, extending from 31N59W to 30N74W early
Thu, and weakening by early Fri from 28N55W to 27N60W. The front
will bring fresh to strong winds to areas east of 68W and north of
28N. The ridge will build again along 25N by late Fri. A weak
cold front should move through the area late in the weekend.

$$
Lewitsky
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