[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150400
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Jun 15 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 21W, from 15N
southward, moving W at 25 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 04N to 12N, between 17W and 27W.

A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 56W, from 14N
southward, moving W at 20 kt. Associated convection is isolated
and weak.

A tropical wave is in the Caribbean Sea along 74W, from 18N
southward, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are observed over northern Colombia near the wave axis, including
the coastal waters.

A tropical wave is in the southern Gulf of Mexico along 91W, from
22N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Isolated thunderstorms are
observed in the Bay of Campeche.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
to 03N33W. The ITCZ continues from 03N33W to NE Brazil near
02N51W. Scattered moderate convection is observed along the
monsoon trough in the vicinity of a tropical wave from 04N to 12N,
between 17W and 27W.

A portion of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends into the
SW Caribbean from 12N84W to 11N74W. A 1009 mb tropical disturbance
is located along the trough near 12N83W. Convection is isolated
and weak convection throughout the SW Caribbean with scattered
moderate convection near the low pressure center.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak 1018 mb high pressure center is analyzed in the NE Gulf
near 27N86W. The gradient between this feature and lower pressure
over northern Mexico is generating moderate to fresh E-SE flow in
the western Gulf with 4-6 ft seas. Conditions are more favorable
in the eastern Gulf with gentle winds and 1-3 ft seas. A line of
thunderstorms is currently moving from the Florida panhandle into
the coastal waters.

For the forecast, a surface ridge will persist across the basin
through Sat. This pattern will support moderate to fresh SE to S
winds across the western Gulf into early Wed. Fresh to strong
winds will pulse offshore the Yucatan Peninsula tonight and Wed
night. Winds and seas will diminish on Thu as the ridge weakens.
Looking ahead, winds and seas may increase over the south-central
Gulf by the weekend as low pressure possibly approaches from the
northwest Caribbean.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The gradient between subtropical high pressure in the Atlantic
and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean has decreased over the last
24-hours. Easterly winds are now moderate to fresh across the
majority of the basin, with gentle to moderate conditions in the
NW basin. Seas are generally 5-7 ft. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are observed in the eastern Caribbean from 12N to
18N east of 68W with similar activity noted over portions of the
Greater Antilles.

For the forecast, weak low pressure currently located to the east
of southern Nicaragua will remain nearly stationary through Wed,
then drift slowly NW along the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras
later this week, and over the Gulf of Honduras through early Sat.
The system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation within
the next 48 hours. A surface ridge north of the area will persist
through the middle of the week. This pattern will support fresh to
occasionally strong E winds along with choppy seas between these
features through the end of the work week. The strongest winds are
expected to be in the south-central Caribbean and Gulf of
Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1026 mb high pressure located in the central Atlantic near
31N42W dominates the weather pattern. A ridge extends from the
high center towards central Florida. North of the ridge, winds are
moderate from the SW with 3-5 ft seas. Within the ridge axis,
winds are gentle with 2-4 ft seas. South of the ridge, winds are
moderate to fresh from the SE with 5-7 ft seas. In the eastern
Atlantic, winds are moderate to fresh from the NE with 5-7 ft
seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, a surface ridge will meander east
to west along 26N through Wed night. A cold front will enter the
northern waters Wed night, extending from 31N59W to 30N74W early
Thu, and weakening by early Fri from 28N55W to 27N60W. The front
will bring fresh to strong winds to areas east of 68W and north of
28N. The ridge will build again along 25N by late Fri. A weak
cold front should move through the area late in the weekend.

$$
Flynn
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