[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141742
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Jun 14 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1720 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 17W/18W, from 15N
southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 540 nm to
the west of the tropical wave from 04N to 13N, also near the
monsoon trough.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 52W/53W, from 14N
southward, moving westward 20 knots. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 210 nm to the
east of the tropical wave from 10N to 12N.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 71W/72W, from 15N
southward, moving westward 20 knots. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is within 480 nm to the east of the
tropical wave from 06N to 13N, mostly inland in South America.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 86W/87W, from 20N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. This tropical wave is
moving through the Central America, from the NW corner of the
Caribbean Sea, through Honduras and Nicaragua, southward.
Precipitation is in the eastern Pacific Ocean from 08N to 16N
from 95W eastward.

A tropical wave is along 92W/93W, from 19N southward, moving
westward 10 knots. The tropical wave is moving through the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation is in
the eastern Pacific Ocean between the 86W/87W tropical and the
92W/93W tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W close to the border with Guinea, to
09N20W and 05N30W. The ITCZ continues from 05N30W, to 04N41W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong covers the
rest of the area that is from 15N southward from 60W eastward.
This does not count the precipitation that is associated with
the tropical waves.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers Mexico from 20N northward.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is
from 19N to 26N between 94W and 102W, inland in Mexico and in
the coastal waters.

Isolated moderate rainshowers are on the western side of an
Atlantic Ocean upper level 71W/72W inverted trough, from 20N
northward from the Straits of Florida eastward.

A surface ridge passes through the NW Bahamas, into the north
central Gulf of Mexico, to 22N98W in the coastal plains of
Mexico in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

The surface pressure gradient, between high pressure in the
Atlantic Ocean and lower pressure in Mexico, is generating
moderate to fresh SE winds, and wave heights that range from 4
feet to 6 feet, in the western Gulf. The winds are fresh to
strong, and the wave heights range from 5 feet to 7 feet, in the
SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. The conditions are more
favorable in the eastern half of the Gulf, with gentle winds and
slight seas.

A surface ridge will persist across the basin through Sat. This
pattern will support moderate to fresh SE to S winds across the
western half of the Gulf into early Wed. Fresh to strong winds
will pulse offshore the Yucatan Peninsula tonight and Wed night.
Winds and seas will diminish on Thu as the ridge weakens.
Looking ahead, winds and seas may increase in the south central
Gulf by the weekend as low pressure possibly approaches from the
northwest Caribbean Sea.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A strong surface pressure gradient exists between subtropical
high pressure and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean Sea. This
pattern is supporting fresh to strong easterly trade winds, and
wave heights that range from 6 feet to 8 feet, through the
majority of the basin. The comparatively fastest wind speeds are
in the south central Caribbean Sea, where the wave heights range
from 8 feet to 10 feet. Fresh to strong NE winds have been
funneling through the Windward Passage.

The monsoon trough is along 10N75W in Colombia, to SE Costa
Rica, and beyond Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 15N southward from 73W westward, in the southwestern corner
of the Caribbean Sea.

A surface ridge, to the north of the area, will persist through
the middle of the week, to the north of an active monsoon trough
that is in the southwestern corner of the Caribbean Sea. This
pattern will support fresh to occasionally strong E winds and
choppy seas, between these features through the end of the work
week. The strongest winds are expected to be in the south
central Caribbean Sea and in the Gulf of Honduras. Low pressure
in the southwestern Caribbean Sea will move northwestward near
the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras, during the latter half of
this week and into the weekend. This system has a low chance for
tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level inverted trough is along 71W/72W, from Hispaniola
to 28N. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 20N northward
between 55W and the Straits of Florida.

The base of an upper level trough is near 12N59W, just to the
east of the Caribbean Sea islands. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 13N to 17N between
58W and 66W in the Atlantic Ocean and in the Caribbean Sea.
Upper level winds are pushing moisture into the areas that are
from 13N to 25N between 40W and 60W.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Atlantic Ocean. A
surface ridge extends from a 1028 mb high pressure center that
is near 31N41W, to 30N50W 27N70W, through the NW Bahamas, toward
the north central Gulf of Mexico.

Moderate southerly winds, and wave heights that range from 3
feet to 5 feet, are to the north of the  31N41W-to-NW Bahamas
surface ridge. Moderate to fresh easterly winds, and wave
heights that range from 5 feet to 7 feet, are to the south of the
31N41W-to-NW Bahamas surface ridge. The winds are gentle, and the
wave heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet, within the ridge. Fresh
easterly winds, and wave heights that range from 5 feet to 7
feet, are in the central Atlantic Ocean. Fresh to strong NE winds,
and wave heights that range from 6 feet to 8 feet, are in the
eastern Atlantic Ocean.

A surface ridge will meander east to west along 26N through Wed
night. A cold front will enter the northern waters Wed night,
extending from 31N65W to 29N72W early Thu, and weakening by
early Fri from 29N55W to 27N59W. The front will bring fresh
winds to areas east of 70W and north of 27N. The
ridge will build again along 25N by Sat.

$$
mt/ah
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