[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132046
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Jun 14 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2040 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 46W/47W, from 14N
southward, moving westward at 20 kt. No significant convection
is evident near the wave axis.

An Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 66W, south of 14N, moving
westward at 15 to 20 kt. Most of the convection near the wave
axis is inland over northern South America.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 82W, south of 20N,
movingwest at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted within 30 nm of a line from 15N83W to 10N79W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
near 10N14W to 08N20W to 06N30W. Segments of the ITCZ continue
from 06N30W to 06N45W, and from 06N47W to 07N53W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 06N to 09N
between 13W and 16W, and from 06N to 08N between 26W and 28W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from central Florida to near the Sabine
Pass between Louisiana and Texas. A few observations along the
Texas coast continue to show SE winds to 20 kt, west of the ridge
axis. This pattern also is supporting moderate E to SE flow over
the western Gulf with 3 to 5 ft seas, and mostly light breezes and
1 to 2 ft seas over the eastern Gulf. Earlier showers and
thunderstorms along the Tamaulipas coast north of Tampico have
dissipated, and no significant shower or thunderstorm activity is
ongoing across the Gulf currently.

For the forecast, the surface ridge extending from the central
Florida to the southwest Louisiana coast will persist through Sat.
This pattern will support moderate to fresh SE to S winds across
the western half of the Gulf into Wed and light to gentle variable
winds elsewhere. Winds and seas will diminish on Thu as the ridge
weakens. Looking ahead, winds and seas may increase over the
south-central Gulf by late Fri as low pressure possibly approaches
from the northwest Caribbean.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A strong pressure gradient persist between subtropical high
pressure and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean. This pattern is
supporting fresh to strong easterly trade winds through the
majority of the basin with 6-8 ft seas. The strongest winds are in
the south- central Caribbean, where seas are 8-10 ft. The
convergence of these persistent trade winds is supporting the line
of thunderstorms from off eastern Panama to off eastern Honduras.
Conditions are more favorable in the lee of Cuba and the far SW
portion of the basin, where winds are gentle to moderate and seas
are slight.

For the forecast, the surface ridge north of the area will
persist through the middle of the week, north of an active monsoon
trough over the southwest Caribbean. This pattern will support
fresh to strong E winds along with occasionally rough seas between
these features through at least mid-week. The strongest winds are
expected to be in the south-central Caribbean and Gulf of
Honduras. Looking ahead, low pressure may form over the western
Caribbean by Thu, then move northwest through the Gulf of Honduras
Fri and Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge extends from 1029 mb high westward to east-
central Florida. A few showers and thunderstorms continue over
the northern Bahamas. Another area of showers and thunderstorms
is evident farther east, near 23N65W related to a weak mid level
trough in the area. A small area of fresh to strong E winds are
funneling along the higher terrain of the northern coast of
Hispaniola, south of the ridge axis. Light breezes and 3 to 5 ft
seas are noted along the ridge axis. Elsewhere south of the ridge
axis across the tropical Atlantic and most of the subtropical
Atlantic moderate to occasionally fresh NE to E winds and 5 to 7
ft seas persist.

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface ridge will meander east
to west along 27N through mid week, as the tail end of a weak
boundary moves eastward across the waters between northeast
Florida and Bermuda Thu and Fri. The ridge will build again along
25N by Sat.

$$
Christensen
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