[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131747
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Jun 13 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1740 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 45W, from 14N
southward, moving westward at 20 kt. No significant convection
is evident near the wave axis.

An Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 65W, south of 14N,
moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Most of the convection near the
wave axis is inland over northern South America.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 81W, south of 20N, moving
westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted within 30 nm of a line from 15N83W to 10N79W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
near 10N14W to 08N20W to 06N30W to 06N32W. The ITCZ continues
from 06N32W to 06N43W to 06N53W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is evident from 06N to 09N between 13W and
16W, and from 06N to 08N between 26W and 28W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from central Florida to near the Sabine
Pass between Louisiana and Texas. A few observations along the
Texas coast are showing SE winds to 20 kt, west of the ridge
axis. This pattern also is supporting moderate E to SE flow over
the western Gulf with 3 to 5 ft seas, and mostly light breezes
and 1 to 2 ft seas over the eastern Gulf. Divergence aloft on
the east side of an upper low centered over north-central Mexico
is supporting a small cluster of showers and thunderstorms along
the Tamaulipas coast north of Tampico.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will lift north of the area
this afternoon and evening. This will continue to support
moderate to fresh SE to S winds across the western half of the
Gulf through Wed night and light to gentle variable winds
elsewhere. Winds and seas will diminish on Thu as the ridge
weakens. Looking ahead, winds and seas may increase over the
south-central Gulf by late Fri as low pressure possibly
approaches from the northwest Caribbean.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A strong gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower
pressure in the SW Caribbean is supporting fresh to strong
easterly trade winds through the majority of the basin with 6-8
ft seas. The strongest winds are in the south-central Caribbean,
where seas are 8-10 ft. The convergence of these persistent
trade winds is supporting the line of thunderstorms from off
eastern Panama to off eastern Honduras. Conditions are more
favorable in the lee of Cuba and the far SW portion of the
basin, where winds are gentle to moderate and seas are slight.

For the forecast, this pattern will continue to support fresh to
strong E winds along with occasionally rough seas between these
features through at least mid-week. The strongest winds are
expected to be in the south-central Caribbean and Gulf of
Honduras. Looking ahead, low pressure may form over the western
Caribbean by Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge extends from 1029 mb high westward to east-
central Florida. A few showers and thunderstorms are active over
the northern Bahamas, currently. Another area of showers and
thunderstorms is evident farther east, near 23N65W related to a
weak mid level trough in the area. Fresh to strong E winds are
funneling along the higher terrain of the northern coast of
Hispaniola, south of the ridge axis. Light breezes and 3 to 5 ft
seas are noted along the ridge axis. Elsewhere south of the
ridge axis across the tropical Atlantic and most of the
subtropical Atlantic moderate to occasionally fresh NE to E
winds and 5 to 7 ft seas persist.

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface ridge extending from
the north-central Atlantic to east-central Florida will lift
north of the area through the middle of the week. This will
support gentle to moderate S to SE winds across the region,
except for fresh to locally strong winds north of Hispaniola and
the approaches of the Windward passage. The ridge will slightly
weaken by late Wed as the tail of a cold front moves across the
waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda. pressure centered
near 33N42W westward to east-central Florida.

$$
mt/ec
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