[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140421
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Jun 14 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave extends along 49W, south of 14N,
and is moving west at 20 kt. Associated convection is isolated
and weak.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends along 67W, south of 14N, and
is moving west at 20 kt. Convection is limited over water, with
scattered moderate convection observed in Venezuela from 04N to
10N between 61W and 68W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends along 83W, south of 20N, and
is moving west at 15 kt. Isolated weak convection is observed in
the NW Caribbean from 15N to 20N, between 80W and 88W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 11N15W to
08N38W. The ITCZ continues from 08N38W to 09N45W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed from 04N to 11N, between 12W and
33W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The gradient between high pressure in the Atlantic and lower
pressure over Mexico is generating moderate to fresh SE winds in
the western Gulf with 4-6 ft seas. Scattered moderate convection
is observed along a surface trough in the eastern Bay of Campeche,
where winds are fresh to strong from the E with 5-7 ft seas.
Conditions are more favorable in the eastern Gulf, with gentle
winds and slight seas.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will persist across the basin
through Sat. This pattern will support moderate to fresh SE to S
winds across the western half of the Gulf into Wed and light to
gentle variable winds elsewhere. Winds and seas will diminish on
Thu as the ridge weakens. Looking ahead, winds and seas may
increase over the south-central Gulf by late Fri as low pressure
possibly approaches from the northwest Caribbean.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A strong gradient persists between subtropical high pressure and
lower pressure in the SW Caribbean. This pattern is supporting
fresh to strong easterly trade winds through the majority of the
basin with 6-8 ft seas. The strongest winds are in the south-
central Caribbean, where seas are 8-10 ft. Fresh to strong NE
winds are funneling through the Windward Passage. A portion of the
eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends from southern Nicaragua to
northern Colombia. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
observed near this feature from 10N-14N, between 77W-81W.

For the forecast, a surface ridge north of the area will persist
through the middle of the week, north of an active monsoon
trough over the southwest Caribbean. This pattern will support
fresh to strong E winds along with occasionally rough seas
between these features through at least mid-week. The strongest
winds are expected to be in the south-central Caribbean and Gulf
of Honduras. Looking ahead, low pressure may form over the
western Caribbean by Thu, then move northwest through the Gulf
of Honduras Fri and Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge extends from a 1029 mb high in the central
Atlantic near 32N42W to central Florida. Isolated moderate
convection is observed from 20N-25N, between 65W-70W, due to a
mid-level trough. North of the ridge, moderate southerly winds
dominate with 3-5 ft seas. South of the ridge, moderate to fresh
easterly winds dominate with 5-7 ft seas. Winds are gentle within
the ridge axis with 2-4 ft seas. In the central Atlantic, fresh
easterly winds dominate with 5-7 ft seas. In the eastern Atlantic,
fresh to strong NE winds dominate with 6-8 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, a surface ridge will meander east
to west along 26N through mid week, as the tail end of a weak
boundary moves eastward across the waters between northeast
Florida and Bermuda Thu and Fri. The ridge will build again along
25N by Sat.

$$
Flynn
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