[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130402
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Jun 12 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave extends along 37W, south of 14N,
moving west at 20 knots. Scattered moderate convection is observed
from 05N to 10N, between 33W and 40W.

An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends along 62W, south
of 20N, moving west at 20 knots. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 04N to 11N, between 55W and 65W, including portions
of Venezuela.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends along 78W, south of 20N,
moving west at 15 knots. Convection has become much more
organized over the last 24 hours. Scattered moderate with isolated
strong convection is observed from 15N to 20N, between 75W and
82W. An area of strong thunderstorms is also observed over
southern Cuba in association with this wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends along 86W, south of 18N,
moving west at less than 5 knots. No significant convection is
observed in the Caribbean associated with this feature.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coastal plains of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W to 09N22W. The ITCZ continues from 09N22W to
08N35W, where the convergent flow is interrupted by a tropical
wave. The ITCZ continues west of the wave from 07N40W to 05N52W,
along the coast of French Guiana. Scattered moderate convection
is observed from 03N to 07N, between 10W and 25W. Scattered weak
convection is observed from 06N to 14N, between 47W and 57W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The gradient between a surface ridge extending from the Straits
of Florida towards Texas and lower pressure over Mexico is
supporting fresh southerly flow in the western Gulf. Moderate
easterly winds dominate the southern Gulf, with gentle winds in
the eastern basin. Seas are generally 3-5 ft, with 1-3 ft in the
eastern basin. A few isolated thunderstorms are noted near the
Yucatan Peninsula and northeast Gulf.

For the forecast, a surface ridge extending from the Straits of
Florida to the Texas coast will lift north of the area through
late Mon. This will support moderate to fresh SE to S winds
across the western half of the Gulf Mon night through Wed night
and mainly light to gentle variable winds elsewhere. Winds and
seas will diminish on Thu as the ridge weakens. Looking ahead,
winds and seas may increase over the south-central Gulf by Fri
as low pressure possibly approaches from the northwest
Caribbean.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A strong gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower
pressure in the SW Caribbean Sea is supporting mainly fresh to
strong easterly trade winds through the majority of the basin with
6-8 ft seas. The strongest winds are in the central Caribbean,
where seas are 8-10 ft. Conditions are more favorable in the lee
of Cuba and the far SW portion of the basin, where winds are
gentle to moderate and seas are slight. The majority of the
convection in the basin is associated with the tropical wave along
78W.

For the forecast, a surface ridge north of the area extending
through portions of the eastern Gulf of Mexico will persist
through the middle of next week, north of an active monsoon trough
over the southwest Caribbean. This pattern will support fresh to
strong E winds along with occasionally rough seas between these
features through at least mid-week. The strongest winds are
expected to be in the south-central Caribbean and Gulf of
Honduras. Looking ahead, low pressure may form over the western
Caribbean by Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

In the western Atlantic, a surface ridge extends SW from a 1030
mb high pressure in the central Atlantic near 33N43W towards south
Florida. North of the ridge, winds are moderate from the south,
with 3-5 ft seas. South of the ridge, winds are moderate to fresh
from the east, with 4-6 ft seas. Winds are gentle within the
ridge axis, with 2-4 ft seas. In the central Atlantic, winds are
moderate to fresh from the ENE, with 5-7 ft seas. In the eastern
Atlantic, winds are generally moderate to fresh from the NE, with
6-8 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, a surface ridge extending from the
north-central Atlantic to the Bahamas and into portions of the
eastern Gulf of Mexico will lift north of the Bahamas through the
middle of the week. This will support mainly gentle to moderate S
to SE winds across the region, except for fresh to locally strong
winds north of Hispaniola and the approaches of the Windward
passage. The ridge will slightly weaken by late Wed as the tail of
a cold front moves across the waters between northeast Florida
and Bermuda.

$$
Flynn
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