[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 122023
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Jun 13 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2040 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W, from 14N southward,
moving westward 20 knots. A few showers are evident from 06N to
08N between 33W and 39W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 60W, from 14N southward,
moving westward 20 knots. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted over northern South America from 04N to 07N
between 58W and 61W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W, from 20N southward,
moving westward 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 14N to 16N between 75W and 77W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 83W/84W, from 19N
southward, drifting westward. No significant convection is evident
near this wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 06N22W. Segments of the ITCZ
continue from 06N22W to 04N32W, and from 02N37W to 04N45W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 10N between 48W
and 51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from the Straits of Florida and Florida
Keys northwestward toward the coast of Texas. Recent scatterometer
satellite data indicates moderate SW winds south of the ridge axis
over the Bay of Campeche, where seas are 2 to 4 ft. Moderate W
winds are evident north of the ridge axis over the far northeast
Gulf. Elsewhere light breezes and slight seas persist under the
ridge axis. No significant convection is evident.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will lift north of the area
through late Mon. This will support moderate to fresh SE to S
winds across the western half of the Gulf Mon night through Wed
night and mainly light to gentle variable winds elsewhere. Winds
and seas will diminish on Thu as the ridge weakens. Looking ahead,
winds and seas may increase over the south-central Gulf by Fri as
low pressure possibly approaches from the northwest Caribbean.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A strong surface pressure gradient between subtropical high
pressure and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean Sea, is supporting
mainly fresh to strong trade winds in the majority of the central
and eastern parts of the Caribbean Sea. Gentle to moderate winds
are in the northwest Caribbean Sea. The comparatively fastest
wind speeds are near the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia, where
the wave heights range from 6 feet to 8 feet. The wave heights
range from 5 feet to 7 feet in the eastern and central parts of
the basin, and they range from 3 feet to 5 feet in the NW
Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, the current pattern will continue to support
fresh to strong E winds along with occasionally rough seas between
these features into early next week. The strongest winds are
expected to be in the south-central Caribbean and Gulf of
Honduras. Looking ahead, low pressure may form over the western
Caribbean by Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge extends from northeast of Bermuda to the northern
Bahamas. Moderate to fresh SW winds are noted north of the ridge,
where seas are 3 to 5 ft. Fresh to strong E winds are ongoing
south of the ridge, funneling along the coast of Hispaniola with
seas to 6 ft. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh NE winds are noted
south of the ridge axis west of 35W with 5 to 7 ft seas over the
tropical Atlantic, reaching near 8 ft just east of Barbados with
the help of NE to E swell. East of 35W, moderate to fresh NE winds
and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted north of 15N, light and variable
winds with 3 to 5 ft seas are evident farther south.

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface ridge extending from the north-central
Atlantic to the Bahamas will lift north of the Bahamas through the
middle of the week. This will support mainly gentle to moderate S
to SE winds across the region, except for fresh to locally strong
winds north of Hispaniola and the approaches of the Windward
passage. The ridge will slightly weaken by late Wed as the tail of
a cold front moves across the waters between northeast Florida
and Bermuda.

$$
Christensen
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net