[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121738
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Jun 12 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1720 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 33W/34W, from 14N
southward, moving westward 20 knots. Precipitation: any nearby
precipitation is also close to the ITCZ. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is within 240 nm to the west of the
tropical wave from the ITCZ to 08N.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57W/58W, from 14N
southward, moving westward 20 knots. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 630 nm to the
east of the tropical wave, and within 520 nm to the west of the
tropical wave, including inland in South America, from 03N to
14N, and from 20N to 22N between 50W and 54W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 73W/74W, from 20N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. This tropical wave is
moving through the Windward Passage. Precipitation: scattered to
numerous strong is within 240 nm to the west of the tropical
wave from 12N to 15N. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in
the remainder of the area that is within 240 nm to the west of
the tropical wave. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
is within 480 nm to the east of the tropical wave, inland in
South America. The monsoon trough is along 10N, from Colombia
near 75W beyond Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 83W/84W, from 19N
southward, moving westward 5 knots to 10 knots. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 420 nm to
the east of the tropical wave, including in the SW corner of the
Caribbean Sea.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, to 06N22W. The ITCZ continues from
06N22W, to 04N32W 02N34W 04N40W 04N45W. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 180 nm to 330 nm
on either side of the monsoon trough/ITCZ between 12W and 45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The GFS model shows that a 500 mb NE-to-SW oriented inverted
trough, and a 700 mb trough, are in the NE and east central
sections of the Gulf of Mexico. A 1013 mb low pressure center is
NW Georgia. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 26N northward from 88W eastward.

A surface ridge passes through the Bahamas, into the Straits of
Florida, to 22N98W in the coastal plains of Mexico in the SW
corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

Moderate to fresh SE to S winds are in the western half of the
Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are in the
eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico. The wave heights range from
3 feet to 4 feet in the entire area.

A surface ridge, extending from the SW N Atlantic, across the
Straits of Florida to portions of the eastern Gulf of Mexico,
will extend all the way to Texas the next few days. This will
support moderate to fresh SE to S winds across the western half
of the Gulf through Wed night and mainly light to gentle
variable winds elsewhere. Winds and seas will diminish on Thu,
as the ridge weakens.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A strong surface pressure gradient, between subtropical high
pressure and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean Sea, is
supporting mainly fresh to strong trade winds in the majority of
the central and eastern parts of the Caribbean Sea. Gentle to
moderate winds are in the NW Caribbean Sea. The comparatively
fastest wind speeds are near the coasts of Venezuela and
Colombia, where the wave heights range from 6 feet to 8 feet.
The wave heights range from 5 feet to 7 feet in the eastern and
central parts of the basin, and they range from 3 feet to 5 feet
in the NW Caribbean Sea.

One tropical wave is along 73W/74W, from 20N southward, moving
westward 15 knots. A second tropical wave is along 83W/84W, from
19N southward, moving westward 5 knots to 10 knots.
Precipitation from the tropical waves is covering at least the
western two-thirds of the Caribbean Sea. The GFS model for 700
mb shows broad cyclonic wind flow from 16N southward from 75W
westward.

A surface ridge north of the area, extending through parts of
the eastern Gulf of Mexico, will persist through the middle of
next week, north of an active monsoon trough in the southwestern
Caribbean Sea. This pattern will support fresh to strong E
winds, along with occasionally rough seas, between these
features, into early next week. The strongest winds are expected
to be in
the south central Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Honduras. Looking
ahead, a trough or weak low pressure will form over the western
Caribbean Sea by Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic cirulation center is near 26N63W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 23N to 27N between 61W and 65W.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 24N42W.
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 20N to 28N
between 28W and 43W.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Atlantic Ocean.

Moderate E to SE winds, and wave heights that range from 4 feet
to 5 feet, cover the areas of the Greater Antilles offshore
waters, to the Bahamas and the adjacent waters. Moderate to
fresh NE to E winds, and wave heights that range from 5 feet to
7 feet, are in the central and the eastern sections of the
Atlantic Ocean.

A surface ridge extending from the north-central Atlantic to the
Bahamas and into portions of the eastern Gulf of Mexico will
prevail through the middle of next week. This will support
mainly gentle to moderate S to SE winds across the region,
except for fresh to locally strong winds north of
Hispaniola and the approaches of the Windward passage. The ridge
will slightly weaken Wed as the tail of a cold front moves
across the waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda.

$$
mt/ec
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