[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131011
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Jun 13 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 39W, south of
14N, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 03N to 10N between 37W and 42W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends along 62W, south of
20N, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are noted along
the wave axis affecting portions of eastern Venezuela.

A western Caribbean tropical wave extends along 80W, south of
20N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Convection has become much more
organized over the last 24 hours. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 10N to 20N between 79W and 83W.

A tropical wave extends across Central America and the EPAC
with axis along 88W, south of 18N, moving west at around 5 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is noted along the wave axis mainly
south of 18N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coastal plains of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N17W to 09N21W. The ITCZ continues from 09N21W to
08N37W, then resumes west of a tropical wave near 07N43W to
05N52W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N to 11N
and east of 32W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The gradient between a surface ridge extending from the Straits
of Florida towards Texas and lower pressure over Mexico is
supporting fresh southerly flow in the western Gulf. Moderate
easterly winds dominate the southern Gulf, with gentle winds in
the eastern basin. Seas are generally 3-5 ft, with 1-3 ft in the
eastern basin.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will lift north of the area
today. This will support moderate to fresh SE to S winds across
the western half of the Gulf through Wed night and light to gentle
variable winds elsewhere. Winds and seas will diminish on Thu as
the ridge weakens. Looking ahead, winds and seas may increase over
the south-central Gulf by late Fri as low pressure possibly
approaches from the northwest Caribbean.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
affecting the basin.

A strong gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower
pressure in the SW Caribbean is supporting fresh to strong
easterly trade winds through the majority of the basin with 6-8
ft seas. The strongest winds are in the south-central Caribbean,
where seas are 8-10 ft. Conditions are more favorable in the lee
of Cuba and the far SW portion of the basin, where winds are
gentle to moderate and seas are slight.

For the forecast, the surface ridge north of the area will
persist through the middle of next week, north of an active
monsoon trough over the southwest Caribbean. This pattern will
support fresh to strong E winds along with occasionally rough seas
between these features through at least mid-week. The strongest
winds are expected to be in the south-central Caribbean and Gulf
of Honduras. Looking ahead, low pressure may form over the western
Caribbean by Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave
affecting the basin.

In the western Atlantic, a surface ridge extends SW from a 1028
mb high pressure in the central Atlantic near 33N45W towards
south Florida. North of the ridge, winds are moderate from the
south, with 3-5 ft seas. South of the ridge, winds are moderate to
fresh from the east, with 4-6 ft seas. Winds are gentle within
the ridge axis, with 2-4 ft seas. Elsewhere, winds are moderate
to fresh from the ENE, with 5-7 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface ridge will lift north
of the Bahamas through the middle of the week. This will support
gentle to moderate S to SE winds across the region, except for
fresh to locally strong winds north of Hispaniola and the
approaches of the Windward passage. The ridge will slightly weaken
by late Wed as the tail of a cold front moves across the waters
between northeast Florida and Bermuda.

$$
ERA
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