[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110559
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Jun 11 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An east Atlantic tropical wave is near 19W from 15N southward,
and moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
from 04N to 08N between 20W and 24W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 37W from 22N southward,
and moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Despite the presence of Sahara Dust,
interaction with an upper-level trough in the vicinity is
triggering scattered showers from 17N to 22N between 33W and 37W.

A third Atlantic tropical wave is near 59W from 14N southward
across Barbados into Guyana, and moving W at 15 to 20 kt.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted over
southern Guyana. This wave should slightly enhance the chance of
showers and thunderstorms near the Windward Islands the next
couple of days.

A weak Caribbean tropical wave is near 74W from 14N southward
into Colombia, and moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is occurring over Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau to
08N23W. Numerous heavy showers are seen south of the trough near
the coast from Guinea southward to Ivory Coast. Farther southwest,
an ITCZ reaches westward from 06N24W to 07N34W, and also
northwestward from 01S35W to 01N44W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted up to 80 nm along either side of both ITCZ segments.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the coastal
areas of Costa Rica, Panama and nearby Caribbean waters.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough reaches from southeast of New Orleans across the
Big Bend Area into northern Florida. Another surface trough is
found over central and southern Florida. These features are
triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms across the
north-central and eastern Gulf, and much of Florida, including the
Florida Straits. Otherwise, a surface ridge extending westward
from the Florida Strait to near Los Lavaderos, Mexico is
promoting gentle to moderate E to SE winds over the western Gulf,
and light to gentle S to SW winds for the eastern Gulf. Seas at 1
to 3 ft for the entire Gulf.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will shift into the
northeastern Gulf by early next week. This will cause a slight
increase in both winds and seas by late Mon over the western
Gulf, including waters off the Yucatan Peninsula coast.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The Atlantic ridge originated from the Azores High continues to
support a trade-wind regime across much of the basin, except the
southwestern portion which was mentioned in the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ section. Together with the presence of Sahara Dust,
fair weather along with moderate to fresh ENE to ESE trades and 4
to 6 ft seas are present for the north-central and eastern basin.
Fresh to strong ENE trades and seas at 6 to 8 ft exist for the
south-central basin, north of Colombia. For the west-central basin
off the coast of Honduras and Nicaragua, strong convergent trades
are coupling with upper- level divergent flow to generate
numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms. Fresh to strong E to
SE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are likely near strong
thunderstorms. Gentle to moderate E trades and 3 to 5 ft seas
prevail for the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will reach the northern half
of the Caribbean later this weekend. Together with an active
monsoon trough across Central America and the SW Caribbean, fresh
to locally strong trades will persist in the south-central and
southwestern basin, and the Gulf of Honduras through the middle
of next week. Rough seas are likely in those regions through the
forecast period. Moderate to fresh trades are forecast elsewhere,
except for gentle to moderate winds over the far NW Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A persistent surface trough curves westward from a 1022 mb low
near 34N49W across 28N53W to 26N61W. Scattered moderate convection
is occurring up to 90 nm along either side of this feature.
Farther south, convergent trade winds are producing similar
conditions off the coast of Suriname, French Guinea and
northeastern Brazil. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical
Waves sections for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

The Atlantic ridge extends from a 1027 mb Azores High across
31N42W to the central Bahamas. It is supporting light to gentle
winds and 4 to 6 ft seas north of 22N between 25W and 74W. Farther
west, gentle to moderate SE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are found
north of 22N between 74W and the Florida coast. To the east,
moderate to fresh NNE to NE trades and seas at 6 to 9 ft are
present north of 18N between the northwest African coast and 25W.
Gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to ENE trades and 5 to 7
ft seas exist from the Equator to 22N between 40W and the Lesser
Antilles/South American coast. Farther east, light to gentle NE to
ENE trades and seas at 4 to 6 ft are found from the Equator to 22N
between 25W and 40W. Gentle to moderate monsoonal winds and seas
of 4 to 5 ft prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will dominate
the western Atlantic waters through most of the forecast period,
including the Bahamas. This will support mainly gentle S to SE
winds across the region, except for fresh winds N of Hispaniola
and the approaches of the Windward passage. The ridge will
slightly weaken on Wed night as the tail of a cold front brushes
the northeastern offshore waters, increasing the winds to between
fresh and strong.

$$

Chan
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