[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102114
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Jun 11 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the E Atlantic along 18W, from 03N to
15N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from
05N to 10N between 18W and 21W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic along 35W, from 05N
to 21N, moving W at 10-15 kt. African dust is currently
suppressing convection with this tropical wave. Only a few
showers are noted near the northern end of the wave axis.

A tropical wave approaching the Windward Islands is along 57W,
from 14N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 14N between 56W
and 60W. Moisture associated with this wave will spread across
the Windward Islands tonight incresing the likelihood of showers
and isolated thunderstorms. Barbados has been reported showers
and gusty winds of up to 42 kt during the last hours.

A low amplitude tropical wave is in the Caribbean along 73W,
from 15N southward into Colombia, moving W at 10-15 kt.
Convection is limited.

A cluster of moderate to strong convection is over the SW
Caribbean likely associated with a tropical wave along 84W/85W,
described in the Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion.
Abundant tropical moisture will pertsist in this area during the
weekend affecting the Caribbean plains of Nicaragua. Late Sun
into Mon, the available moisture will spread westward into the
Gulf of Honduras. The island of San Andres has been reported
thunderstorms and gusty winds.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 08N18W. Segments of the ITCZ extend from 07N25W to
07N33W, and from 08N41W to 04N51W. In addition to the convection
described above in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate
convection is noted from 00N to 03N between 36W and 42W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough reaches across the far northeast Gulf from near
Cedar Key, Florida to the mouth of the Mississippi River. A few
showers and thunderstorms are active over the east-central Gulf
ahead of the trough, specifically from 25N to 27N east of 85W. A
surface ridge is analyzed farther south, reaching from the Straits
of Florida to the Texas coast. This pattern is supporting mostly
gentle to moderate breezes and slight seas across the Gulf.

For the forecast, the surface ridge extending from the Straits of
Florida to the Texas coast will shift into the northeast Gulf by
early next week. This will allow slight increased winds and seas
by late Mon over the western Gulf, to include off the coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The major influences on the regional weather remain the
subtropical ridge north of the basin, and the monsoon trough
extending east to west over the far southwestern Caribbean.  The
main impact is fresh to occasionally strong trade wind flow that
was indicated on recent scatterometer satellite and ship
observations over most of the west-central Caribbean. The fresh
to strong trade winds are also supporting 6 to 8 ft seas over
this part of the Caribbean. Moderate E to SE winds and 3 to 5 ft
seas are noted elsewhere, except for gentle SE breezes and
slight seas south of Cuba. Saharan dust remains over the region,
possibly causing modest haze in some areas.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will persist north of the area from
the western Atlantic to the southeast Gulf. Farther south, the
monsoon trough will persist across the far southwest Caribbean.
Fresh to strong E winds will pulse along with occasionally rough
seas into early next week between these features over mainly the
south-central Caribbean, and will include the Gulf of Honduras by
early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Divergent flow aloft ahead of an upper trough reaching from the
Outer Banks of North Carolina to northeast Florida is supporting a
few showers and thunderstorms over the northern Bahamas, and
farther south off the central Bahamas as well. A surface ridge
extends from a 1030 mb high centered over the north-central
Atlantic near 23N42W southwestward to the central Bahamas. This
ridge is broken up by weak surface trough reaching from 1023 mb
low pressure near 34N48W to 24N60W. A few showers and
thunderstorms are active near the southern end of the trough from
22N to 24N between 60W and 63W. Moderate SW winds and 3 to 5 ft
seas are noted north of the Bahamas and west of the ridge axis.
Moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds and 6 to 8 ft are noted
south of the ridge, mainly south of 20N to 22N across the tropical
Atlantic west of 35W. Light to gentle breezes and 4 to 6 ft seas
are noted elsewhere, with predominantly northerly swell.

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface ridge extending from
the north-central Atlantic to the central Bahamas will lift to the
north of the Bahamas to along 28N by early next week. Little
change elsewhere.

$$
Christensen/GR
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