[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111039
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Jun 11 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1050 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic extending from 03N to 15N
with axis along 21W, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Numerous moderate
convection is behind the wave axis from 02N to 12N between 06W
and 17W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic from 05N to 17N with
axis along 39W, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. There is no convection
associated with this wave at the moment.

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean, S of 14N with axis along
62W, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Isolated showers associated with the
wave are affecting the SE Caribbean, including the Windward
Islands.

A tropical wave is in the SW Caribbean S of 15N with axis along
83W, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is S of 15N between 75W and 85W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the W coast of Africa near 12N16W
to 06N23W where the ITCZ begins and continues to 08N37W. The ITCZ
then resumes W of a tropical wave from 02N41W to 04N51W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 04N to 08N between 20W and 28W. For
further information on convection, see the tropical waves section
above.

...GULF OF MEXICO...



For the forecast, surface ridging extending from the Straits of
Florida to the Texas coast will shift into the northeast Gulf by
early next week. This will allow slight increased winds and seas
by late Mon over the western Gulf, to include off the coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...



For the forecast, the SW extension of the Azores high will reach
the northern half of the Caribbean and along with an active
monsoon trough across Central America and the SW Caribbean will
support the continuation of fresh to locally strong trades in the
south- central and portions of the SW basin, and the Gulf of
Honduras through the middle of next week. Rough seas are likely in
those regions through the forecast period. Moderate to fresh
trades are forecast elsewhere, except for gentle to moderate winds
over the far NW Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...





For the forecast west of 55W, the SW ridge extension of the
Azores high will dominate the SW N Atlantic waters through most of
the forecast period, including the Bahamas. This will support
mainly gentle S to SE winds across the region, except for fresh
winds N of Hispaniola and the approaches of the Windward passage.
The ridge will slightly weaken on Wed night as the tail of a cold
front brushes the NE offshore waters, increasing the winds to
fresh to strong.

$$
Ramos
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