[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090555
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Jun 9 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale-force winds are forecast for the eastern part of the
METEO-FRANCE forecast area AGADIR,
until 09 June/0600 UTC. Please, refer to the following website,
http://weather.gmdss.org/bulletins/METAREA2.HIGH_SEAS_WARNING.1804.
0818045237480.html, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A newly analyzed tropical wave is near 23W from the Cabo Verde
Islands southward, and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is present from 06N to 09N between 20W and
25W.

An Atlantic tropical wave is near 46W from 13N southward, and
moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 09N to 12N between 42W and 51W.

Another tropical wave is near the Windward Islands from St. Lucia
southward into eastern Venezuela, and moving westward at 10 to 15
kt. Scattered moderate convection is found over eastern Venezuela.

A Caribbean tropical wave is near 81W from 14N southward across
Panama into the East Pacific Ocean, and moving west near 10 kt.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring across
western Panama, Costa Rica and nearby Caribbean waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The western end of a monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near
the Senegal-Mauritania border to just east of the Cabo Verde
Islands near 17N21W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong
convection is flaring up along the coast of Senegal, Gambia and
Guinea-Bissau. An ITCZ extends from 07N25W across EQ36W to
northeast of Sao Luis, Brazil at 02S42W, and from 06N48W to north
of the Guyana-Suriname border at 06N57W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted up to 250 nm northwest, and up to 100 nm
southeast of the ITCZ between 25W and 35W; and also from the coast
of Suriname/French Guiana to 09N.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over eastern Panama,
northern Colombia and nearby Caribbean waters.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Convergent trade winds north of the East Pacific monsoon trough
are producing numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms over
the southern Bay of Campeche. A weak surface trough is triggering
patchy showers near the central Gulf and northern Florida.
Otherwise, a surface ridge extending west-southwestward from
central Florida to near Los Lavaderos, Mexico is sustaining
gentle to moderate southerly winds and 2 to 4 ft seas for most of
the Gulf. The exception is moderate to fresh E to SE winds and 3
to 5 ft seas near the coasts of Texas and the Yucatan Peninsula.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will dominate the Gulf
through the week and into the upcoming weekend, producing
generally return flow west of 90W through Fri. Moderate winds
within 120 nm of the Yucatan Peninsula will pulse to fresh each
evening through the forecast period.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for
weather in the basin. The Atlantic ridge is sustaining a trade-
wind regime across the entire Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong ENE
trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft are evident over the south-central
basin, north of Colombia. Moderate with locally fresh ENE trades
and seas at 4 to 6 ft are seen across the north-central and
eastern basin. Gentle to moderate E to ESE trades and 3 to 6 ft
seas prevail for the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will maintain a modest
pressure gradient and moderate to fresh trade winds across most of
the basin throughout the week. Fresh to strong winds are expected
across the south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of
Venezuela, mainly at night through the weekend. Fresh winds will
pulse each night through the end of the week across the interior
Gulf of Honduras. This ridge will strengthen north of the area
over the weekend to produce fresh to strong trades across much of
the basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level trough stretches northeastward from a low over the
Straits of Florida to beyond 31N at 67W. Divergent winds near and
south of this trough axis are triggering scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms from the Florida Straits across the Great
Bahama Bank to the southeastern Bahamas. Farther east, a weakening
stationary front curves southwestward from the north-central
Atlantic across 31N48W to 28N68W. Scattered showers are evident up
to 120 nm north, and up to 50 nm south of this boundary. Just to
the south, a surface trough is generating scattered moderate
convection from 23N to 25N between 53W and 63W. Refer to the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional
weather in the Atlantic Basin.

Residual northerly swell is maintaining seas at 5 to 8 ft near the
aforementioned stationary front, north of 24N between 43W and 64W.
Otherwise, the Atlantic ridge is promoting light to gentle winds
and 4 to 5 ft seas north of 18N between 45W and the Bahamas/Florida
coast; and also north of 20N between 35W and 45W. Farther east,
fresh to strong NE trades and 7 to 9 ft seas are near the Canary
Islands north of 21N between the African coast and 35W. To the
southwest, moderate to fresh NE to ENE trades and seas at 5 to 7
ft are found from the northeast coast of South America to 18N
between 40W and the Lesser Antilles, and also from 10N to 20N
between 35W and 40W. Light to gentle monsoonal winds and seas of 4
to 6 ft prevail for the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the weakening stationary front will
meander across the E waters through Thu. The Atlantic ridge will
gradually strengthen across the region Fri through the weekend,
producing fresh S to SW winds to the north of 28N and west of
70W.

$$

Chan
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