[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091055
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Jun 9 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 26W from 17N southward, and
moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is present from 03N to 09.5N between 21W and 29W.

An Atlantic tropical wave is near 48W from 13N southward, and
moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 07N to 11N between 45W and 52W, and from
02N to 05N between 48W and 51W.

Another tropical wave is along 64W southward into Venezuela, and
moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is found well inland over eastern Venezuela south of
08N.

A Caribbean tropical wave is near 84W from 16N southward across
the Costa Rica-Panama border and into the East Pacific Ocean,
moving west near 10 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection dots
the area within 240 nm of the wave. This wave has reached the
eastern extent of the well established eastern Pacific monsoonal
circulation and is likely to become absorbed and non detectable
within the next 24 to 48 hours. Associated moisture is being
sheared from the northern portions of this wave toward the
northwest and across spreading across much of the NW Caribbean.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The western end of a monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near
the Senegal-Mauritania border to near 11N22W. Numerous moderate
scattered strong convection has moved westward off of the African
coast and extends from 08N to 15N to the east of 18W. An ITCZ
extends from 06N27W across the EQ34W to northeast Brazil at
02.5S40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from the equator
to 07.5N between 30W and 44W.

Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring within 180 nm
either side of the eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough
from 07N to 12.5N between 72W and 80W, and extends inland across
NW Colombia and eastern Panama.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection has been
ongoing overnight across interior portions of central America and
into southeast Mexico, and has recently shifted northwestward across
the central Bay of Campeche south of 21N. Other small clusters of
moderate convection has recently developed across the Mexican
coastal waters south of 22N to the Veracruz area. Elsewhere,
clear to fair skies prevail across the entire Gulf, except for
cloudy skies and a few showers across the Straits of Florida. A
weak surface ridge extends westward from southern Florida to near
91W, is sustaining gentle to moderate southerly winds and 2 to 4
ft seas for most of the Gulf west of 85W. The exception is
moderate to fresh E to SE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas near the coasts
of Texas and the northwest Yucatan Peninsula.

For the forecast, the surface ridge presently across the basin will
weaken through Fri. New high pressure will develop across the E
central Gulf Sat and persist through late Mon. Moderate winds
within 120 nm of the Yucatan Peninsula will pulse to fresh each
evening through the forecast period.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The Atlantic ridge extends westward along about 25N to the north
of the area and is sustaining moderate trade winds across most of
the Caribbean Sea, except for fresh to strong trades and seas of
6 to 8 ft over the south-central basin, north of Colombia, while
fresh to locally strong winds prevail across the Gulf of Honduras.
Seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail across the remainder of the basin. A
middle level trough extends from the Leeward Islands W-SW to the
southwest Caribbean and is producing stable atmospheric conditions
across much of the basin. This is combining with Saharan air to
the east of 77W to produce fair and hazy skies.

For the forecast, the ridge north of the area will persist
through early Fri, and maintain moderate to fresh trade winds
across most of the basin. Fresh to strong winds are expected
across the south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of
Venezuela, mainly at night through Sat. Fresh winds will pulse
each night through the end of the week across the interior Gulf of
Honduras. Atlantic high pressure will strengthen north of the
area over the weekend to produce fresh to strong trades across
much of the basin late Sat through Mon.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level trough stretches northeastward from a low over the
Straits of Florida to beyond 31N and Bermuda. Ample low level
moisture lingers across the area from the NW Bahamas to the
Bermuda area. Divergent winds near and south of this upper trough
axis are supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
from the central Bahamas to near Bermuda. Farther east, a
weakening stationary front curves southwestward from the north-
central Atlantic across 31N48W to 28N68W. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are evident up to 120 nm south of this
boundary. Just to the south, a surface trough is generating
scattered moderate convection from 23N to 25N between 53W and 63W.

Residual northerly swell from the north Atlantic is maintaining
seas of 6 to 9 ft near the aforementioned stationary front, north
of 27N between 43W and 58W. Otherwise, the Atlantic ridge is
promoting light to gentle winds and 4 to 5 ft seas north of 18N
between 45W and the Bahamas/Florida coast, and also north of 20N
between 35W and 45W. Farther east, fresh to strong NE trades and 7
to 9 ft seas are near the Canary Islands north of 21N between the
African coast and 35W. To the southwest, moderate to fresh NE to
ENE trades and seas at 5 to 8 ft are found from the northeast
coast of South America to 18N between 40W and the Lesser Antilles,
and also from 10N to 20N between 35W and 40W. Light to gentle
monsoonal winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the remainder of
the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the weak and narrow Atlantic ridge
along 25N will persist through late Fri. The weak frontal
boundary along 26N will meander across the E waters through Fri.
High pressure will gradually strengthen across the region late Fri
through the weekend to produce fresh trades south of 22N and
fresh S to SW winds to the north of 28N and west of 72W.

$$
Stripling
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