[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082202
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Jun 9 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale-force winds are forecast for the eastern part of the
METEO-FRANCE forecast area AGADIR,
until 09 June/0600 UTC. Please, refer to the following website,
http://weather.gmdss.org/bulletins/METAREA2.HIGH_SEAS_WARNING.1804.
0818045237480.html, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 42WW from 01N to 14N, moving
westward at 15 knots to 20 knots. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 07N to 12N between 42W and 46W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 60W from 14N southward,
moving westward at 15 knots to 20 knots. Scattered moderate
convection is over the discussion waters south of 13N between
57W and 63W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 79W north of 02N, moving
west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 60
nm east of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains over Africa. The ITCZ extends from
10N18W to 06N27W to 03N41W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted within 150 nm either side of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails across the Gulf waters. Light to gentle
winds are over the NE Gulf, with gentle to locally moderate
winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-4 ft range over the NW Gulf,
and 1-3 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the basin through
the week and into the upcoming weekend producing generally return
flow west of 90W through Fri. Moderate winds within 120 nm of
the Yucatan Peninsula will pulse to fresh each night through the
forecast period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A high pressure ridge prevails north of the area. A modest
pressure gradient across the area is supporting fresh to locally
strong trades over the south central Caribbean with moderate to
fresh winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range across the
central Caribbean, and 3-5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, a modest pressure gradient and moderate to
fresh trade winds will prevail across most of the basin
throughout the week. Fresh to strong winds are expected across
the south- central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela,
mainly at night through the weekend. Fresh winds will pulse each
night through the end of the week across the interior Gulf of
Honduras. Atlantic high pressure will strengthen north of the
area over the weekend to produce fresh to strong trades across
much of the basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge extends from high pressure centered near 35N23W
SW across the southern Bahamas. A dissipating stationary trough
extends from 31N48W to 27N65W. A weak pressure gradient prevails
across the area. Gentle to moderate winds are found north of the
dissipating stationary front with light to gentle winds
prevailing elsewhere north of 20N and west of 35W. Moderate to
fresh winds prevail south of 20N. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range
north of the dissipating front, and 4-6 ft elsewhere north of 20N
and west of 35W. South of 20N, 5-7 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure will strengthen across
the region over the upcoming weekend to produce fresh S to SW
winds to the north of 28N and west of 70W.

$$
AL
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