[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062235
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Jun 7 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Post- Tropical Cyclone Alex is centered near 35.5N 60.6W at
06/2100 UTC or 280 nm NE of Bermuda moving ENE at 27 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. There is no deep
convection near the center of Alex, with scattered moderate
convection well NE of the center of Alex. Alex is moving quickly
toward the east-northeast. Another non- tropical low pressure
area is expected to develop NE of Alex tonight, with Alex then
merging with that area of low pressure within the next 24 hours
or so. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 28W, from 01N to 13N, moving
westward 15 to 20 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 05N to 09N between 26W and 31W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 43W, from 01N to 12N, moving
westward 15 to 20 knots. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 04N to 08N between 40W and 46W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 64W, from 13N southward,
moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong is inland, in parts of Brazil and Venezuela.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 81W, from 13N southward,
moving westward 10 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted south of 13N between 78W and 83W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
near 11N14W and extends to 08N17W to 06N23W. The ITCZ continues
from 06N23W to 06N27W. It continues from 06N29W to 04N42W, then
from 04N44W to 04N49W. Aside from convection discussed in the
tropical waves section above, scattered moderate convection is
noted from 01N to 10N between 10W and 15W, and from 02N to 08N
between 46W and 56W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A high pressure ridge extends across the northern waters.
Moderate to locally fresh southerly return flow prevails over the
western Gulf, with light to gentle winds over the eastern Gulf.
Seas are in the 3-5 ft range over the waters west of 94W, and 1-3
ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the basin through
the week and into the upcoming weekend. Moderate to fresh SE-S
return flow will be in the west-central and NW Gulf through Tue
morning due to a locally tight pressure gradient. Fresh to strong
winds will pulse off the northern Yucatan coast Wed evening.
Otherwise, fairly tranquil marine conditions are expected with
the high pressure.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure gradient prevails across the Caribbean waters.
Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the central and eastern
Caribbean with gentle to moderate winds over the western
Caribbean. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over the central
Caribbean, 4-6 ft over the eastern Caribbean, and 2-4 ft in the
western Caribbean.

For the forecast, the Atlc ridge from the eastern Atlc west-
southwest to the SE Bahamas, will maintain a modest pressure
gradient across the area. This will support moderate to fresh
trade winds across most of the Caribbean basin throughout the
week and into the upcoming weekend. Fresh to strong trade winds
are expected across the south- central Caribbean, including the
Gulf of Venezuela, mainly at night through Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about Post-
Tropical Cyclone Alex, centered north of the area.

Elsewhere, a ridge of high pressure dominates the tropical and
subtropical waters north of 20N. Fresh to near gale winds, and
seas of 8-15 ft, continue in association to Alex over the waters
north of 29N between 57W and 65W. Light to gentle winds cover the
waters west of 70W, and gentle to moderate winds prevail
elsewhere west of 40W. Fresh to locally strong winds prevail east
of 40W. Seas of 8-15 ft that were generated by Alex continue
elsewhere north of 27N between 65W and 73W. Seas of 4-5 ft
prevail elsewhere north of 20N west of 50W, and north of 25N east
of 50W. Seas of 6-8 ft prevail over the remainder of the
discussion waters.

For the forecast, associated high seas of Post-tropical Alex will
continue to affect the NE zones, gradually subsiding through mid-
week. High pressure will build westward into the Bahamas to the
south of Alex. A surface trough will linger across the NE waters
through Thu.

$$
AL
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