[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070502
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Jun 7 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0455 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 29W and south of 13N based on
recent scatterometer satellite data. The wave is moving westward
near 20 knots. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is observed S of 09N and between 24W and 37W.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 46W, south of 14N and moving
westward near 20-25 knots. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is present from 04N to 09N and between 40W and the
coast of NE South America.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 66W, south of 13N and over
central Venezuela, and moving westward near 15-20 knots. A few
showers are noted near the trough axis over Venezuela.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic near the border of Senegal and
Guinea-Bissau near 12N17W and continues to 10N20W. The ITCZ
stretches from 10N20W to 06N28W and then from 05N30W to 05N45W and
another segment is found from 04N47W to 03N51W. Information on the
convection is discussed in the tropical waves section above.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak ridge dominates the Gulf of Mexico and fairly tranquil
weather conditions prevail. However, a surface trough associated
with a long rainband extending from Post-Tropical Cyclone Alex
over the NW Atlantic, reaches across South Florida and into the SE
Gulf. The convergent low-level winds is generating a few showers
and isolated thunderstorms over the Straits of Florida.

A pressure gradient exists in the western Gulf between the weak
high pressure near Florida and lower pressures over Mexico and
Texas. Surface observations and a recent scatterometer satellite
pass indicate that fresh to locally strong SE winds are occurring
primarily W of 94W. The strongest winds are noted off south Texas,
mainly within 60 nm of the coast. Moderate easterly winds are
present offshore northern Yucatan, while light to gentle breezes
are prevalent elsewhere. Seas of 3-5 ft are noted W of 94W and
1-3 ft in the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the basin through
the week and into the upcoming weekend. Moderate to fresh SE-S
return flow will prevail in the west-central and NW Gulf through
Tue morning due to a locally tight pressure gradient. Fresh to
strong winds will pulse off the northern Yucatan coast Wed
evening. Otherwise, fairly tranquil marine conditions are expected
with the high pressure regime.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent low-level winds are producing a few showers in the SW
Caribbean Sea, especially offshore NW Colombia and Nicaragua. The
subtropical ridge positioned SW of the Azores extends into the
Caribbean Sea and a pressure gradient persists between this system
and lower pressures over northern South America. Recent
scatterometer satellite data captured fresh to strong trades
across the south-central Caribbean Sea, with the strongest winds
occurring offshore Colombia and NW Venezuela. Seas in the region
are 5-7 ft. Moderate to fresh trades are noted in the rest of the
central Caribbean and eastern portion of the basin, along with
seas of 4-6 ft. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds are observed in
the NW Caribbean and light to gentle winds in the SW Caribbean.
Seas in the waters discussed are 2-4 ft.

For the forecast, the Atlc ridge extends from the eastern Atlc west-
southwest to the SE Bahamas, and will maintain a modest pressure
gradient and moderate to fresh trade winds across most of the
Caribbean basin throughout the week and into the upcoming
weekend. Fresh to strong trade winds are expected across the
south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela, mainly
at night through Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Post-Tropical Cyclone Alex is quickly moving away from the
western tropical Atlantic as it traverses the waters of the NW
Atlantic. However, a surface trough extends from this system,
entering the basin near 31N62W and continuing southwestward to the
NW Bahamas, South Florida and into the SE Gulf. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is present from 24N to 29N and W of
75W, affecting the NW Bahamas and surrounding waters. Winds W of
65W are light to moderate, although stronger winds are likely with
the heaviest storms. Seas in the area are 4-7 ft. Fresh to strong
W-SW winds are found N of a line from 31N50W to 26N61W to 31N64W.
Seas in these waters are 8-16 ft. Highest seas are occurring near
31N60W.

The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a subtropical
ridge positioned SW of the Azores, maintaining fairly tranquil
weather conditions. The pressure gradient between this system and
lower pressures over NW Africa and the deep tropics result in
fresh to locally strong NE winds S of a line from 31N20W near the
Canary Islands to 17N61W near the Lesser Antilles. The strongest
winds are occurring offshore Western Sahara, Morocco and the
waters surrounding the Canary Islands. NE-E swell has been
producing seas of 6-9 ft across most of the central and eastern
Atlantic. Highest seas are found W of the Cabo Verde Islands, near
17N30W. Winds are gentle to moderate with moderate seas within
the ridge axis and through the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and high seas associated
with Post-tropical Alex will continue to affect the NE zones,
with wind diminishing by early Tue and seas gradually subsiding
through mid-week. High pressure will build westward into the
Bahamas to the south of Alex. A surface trough will linger across
the NE waters through Thu.

$$
Delgado
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