[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061801
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Jun 06 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of TROPICAL STORM ALEX, at 06/1800 UTC, is near 34.7N
62.2W, or about 192 nm/355 km NE of Bermuda. ALEX is moving ENE,
or 065 degrees, 25 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure
is 993 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 55 knots with
gusts to 65 knots. Precipitation: Low level convergence, that is
associated with a long rainband, extends southwestward from
Tropical Storm Alex, to the Bahamas. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is  within 120 nm on
either side of the line that passes through 31N60W 25N70W
24N75W, to Cuba near 22N80W. The precipitation is from 275 nm to
640 nm to the south of T.S. ALEX, in the Atlantic Ocean. The
rainshowers span the Bahamas and nearby waters from Cuba and
Hispaniola to 27N from 70W to the Florida Straits. Isolated
moderate to locally strong is in the NW corner of the Caribbean
Sea, from 16N northward from 80W westward. Alex is forecast to
begin to weaken today, as it interacts with a middle level to
upper level cyclonic circulation center that is to its
northeast. The system is expected to become an extratropical low
by this afternoon or evening. Alex is forecast to pass near or
just north of Bermuda today, and tropical storm conditions are
expected on the island through this afternoon. Please, read the
latest NHC Public Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml; and the
Forecast/Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 26W/27W, from 13N
southward, moving westward 20 to 25 knots. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 100 nm to the
north of the ITCZ between 27W and 31W, within 320 nm to the west
of the tropical wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 40W/41W, from 12N
southward, moving westward 20 to 25 knots. Precipitation: widely
scattered to scattered moderate, and isolated strong, is from
08N southward, between 40W and 50W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 62W/63W, from 13N
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is inland, in
parts of Brazil and Venezuela.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 80W/81W, from 13N
southward in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, moving westward
10 knots. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from
09N to 12N between 77W and 80W. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is elsewhere from 14N southward from 76W
westward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
near 10N14W, to 07N24W. The ITCZ is along 06N28W 05N34W 04N39W.
Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate, and
isolated to widely scattered strong, is from 13N southward
between 50W and 60W, and from 12N southward between 04W and 25W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The surface pressure gradient is flat and weak. A weak surface
ridge passes through the Florida Panhandle and the Florida Big
Bend, southwestward, to 22N98W at the coast of Mexico. Fairly
tranquil weather conditions are in the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate
to fresh SE winds are in the western part of the Gulf of Mexico,
especially W of 95W. The wave heights in this area have been
building to 3 to 5 feet during the last few hours. Light to
gentle anticyclonic winds, and wave heights that range from 1
foot to 2 feet, are in the rest of the Gulf of Mexico.

High pressure will dominate the basin through the week.
Moderate to fresh SE-S return flow will be in the west central
and NW Gulf through Tue morning, due to a locally tight pressure
gradient. Fresh to strong winds will pulse off the northern
Yucatan coast Wed evening. Otherwise, fairly tranquil marine
conditions are expected with the high pressure.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Low level convergence, that is associated with a long rainband,
extends southwestward from Tropical Storm Alex, to the Bahamas.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 120 nm on either side of the line that passes through
31N60W 25N70W 24N75W, to Cuba near 22N80W. The precipitation is
from 275 nm to 640 nm to the south of T.S. ALEX, in the Atlantic
Ocean. The rainshowers span the Bahamas and nearby waters from
Cuba and Hispaniola to 27N from 70W to the Florida Straits.
Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the NW corner of the
Caribbean Sea, from 16N northward from 80W westward.

A tropical wave is along 80W/81W from 13N southward. The monsoon
trough passes through Colombia near 10N74W, beyond southern
Nicaragua, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation:
scattered to numerous strong is from 09N to 12N between 77W and
80W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere
from 14N southward from 76W westward.

Fresh to strong winds are in the central and SE Caribbean Sea.
The comparatively fastest wind speeds are offshore northern
Colombia and NW Venezuela. The wave heights range from 5 feet to
7 feet. Moderate to locally fresh winds, and wave heights that
range from 3 feet to 6 feet, are in the remainder of the eastern
Caribbean Sea. Light to locally moderate winds, and wave heights
that range from 2 feet to 4 feet, are in the remainder of the
Caribbean Sea.

The Atlc ridge extends from the E Atlc west-southwest to the SE
Bahamas, and will maintain a modest pressure gradient and
moderate to fresh trade winds across most of the Caribbean basin
throughout the week. Fresh to strong trade winds are expected
across the south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of
Venezuela, mainly at night through Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
Tropical Storm Alex.

A surface ridge extends from a 1029 mb high pressure center that
is near 31N32W, to 27N45W 22N58W 22N70W, to NW Cuba. Broad
surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Atlantic Ocean from 15N
northward, away from T. S. ALEX.

Fresh to locally strong NE winds are south of a line from
31N23W, to the Leeward Islands, covering most of the central and
eastern Atlantic Ocean. The comparatively fastest wind speeds
are offshore western Africa, especially near and north of the
Cabo Verde Islands, and E of 25W. The wave heights range from 6
feet to 9 feet. The wind speeds are gentle to moderate, and the
seas are moderate, within the ridge, and throughout the
remainder of the basin.

Tropical Storm Alex north of the area near 34.0N 63.8W 993 mb at
11 AM EDT moving ENE at 25 kt. Maximum sustained winds 55 kt
gusts 65 kt. Alex will become extratropical tonight, while
racing ENE with the center and tropical storm force winds north
of the forecast area. Associated high seas will continue to
affect the NE zones today, then gradually subside through
mid-week. High pressure will build westward into the Bahamas to
the south of Alex. A surface trough will linger across the NE
waters through Thu.

$$
mt
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