[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 061156 AAA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Jun 6 2022

Updated Special Features for 1200 UTC Information

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Alex is centered near 33.8N 65.1W at 06/1200 UTC
or 90 nm NNW of Bermuda moving ENE at 24 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55
kt with gusts to 65 kt. As of 0900 UTC, seas of 12 ft seas and
higher extend into the area waters up to 270 nm to the SE and
300 nm to the SW. Buoy 41048 near 32N70W reported peak wave
heights to 30 ft earlier overnight. Numerous moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted over the eastern semicircle
to 60W, while the center of Alex remains an exposed low level
cloud swirl devoid of significant convection. A trailing
rainband extends SW producing scattered moderate convection
across the central and SE Bahamas and to central Cuba. The
center of the tropical storm is expected to pass just north of
Bermuda this morning. Alex is forecast to begin to weaken today
as it interacts with a middle to upper level low center to it's
NE, and the system is expected to become an extratropical low by
this afternoon or evening.

Alex is forecast to pass near or just north of Bermuda today,
and tropical storm conditions are expected on the island through
this afternoon. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed along 24W, south of 12N and moving
westward at 20-25 knots. Isolated convection is noted within 120
nm of the wave.

A tropical wave is analyzed along 38W, south of 12N and moving
westward at 20-25 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is near the wave from 02N to 06.5N between 37W and 42W.

A tropical wave is analyzed along 61W, south of 13N, and moving
westward at 15-20 knots. Scattered moderate to strong convection
is observed within 120 nm of the wave axis S of 11N and extends
well inland over NE South America and offshore waters.

A tropical wave is analyzed along 79W/80W, south of 13N into the
eastern Pacific and western Colombia, and moving westward at 10
knots. Scattered strong showers and thunderstorms are S of 12N
across the Caribbean waters and area also affecting the Caribbean
coasts of Panama and Colombia and along their Pacific coasts N of
03N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
near 10N14W and extends to 06N23W. The ITCZ stretches from 06N25W
to 04.5N37W and then resumes from 04.5N39W to 03.5N51W. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is N of 03N to the coast of Africa
between 07W and 17W. Scattered showers are seen on satellite
imagery within 90 nm of the ITCZ between 42W and 51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak high pressure regime dominates the Gulf of Mexico,
supporting fairly tranquil weather conditions. The pressure
gradient between 1011 mb high pressure over the NE Gulf and lower
pressures over Mexico and Texas is resulting in moderate to fresh
SE winds over the western portion of the basin, especially W of
95W. Seas in this area have built to 3-5 ft in recent hours.
Light to gentle anticyclonic winds and seas of 1-2 ft prevail in
the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will prevail across the Gulf
waters through Tue, allowing moderate to fresh return flow to
set up across the western Gulf. A ridge will continue to
dominate the Gulf waters through Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Low-level convergence associated with a long rainband extending
from Tropical Storm Alex supports scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection across central Cuba, and has become more
isolated in the past few hours extending SW to north of the
Cayman Islands. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
also noted near the coast of Panama. The rest of the Caribbean Sea
enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions. Overnight scatterometer
satellite data captured fresh to strong trades in the central and
SE Caribbean, with the strongest winds occurring offshore
northern Colombia and NW Venezuela. Seas is the described waters
are 5-7 ft. Moderate to locally fresh winds are present remainder
of the eastern Caribbean with seas of 3-6 ft. Light to locally
moderate trades and seas of 2-4 ft are observed elsewhere in the
basin.

For the forecast, the Atlc ridge will maintain a modest pressure
gradient and moderate to fresh trade winds across most of the
Caribbean basin throughout the week. Fresh to strong trade winds
are expected across the south-central Caribbean, including the
Gulf of Venezuela, mainly at night through Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about
Tropical Storm Alex.

Outside of the influence of Tropical Storm Alex, and the
convergent band of convection extending to the SW, the remainder
of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1026 mb high pressure
system positioned near 32N31W, maintaining tranquil weather
conditions. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are noted on
satellite-derived wind data south of a line from 31N23W to the
Leeward Islands, covering most of the central and eastern
Atlantic. The strongest winds are found offshore western Africa,
especially near and north of the Cabo Verde Islands and E of 25W.
Seas over the region described are 6-9 ft. Winds are gentle to
moderate with moderate seas within the ridge axis and through the
remainder of the basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, Topical Storm Alex will continue to
race ENE and remain N of the area. Strong to Tropical Storm force
SW winds and high seas will continue to affect the NE zones today
then gradually diminish tonight. High pressure will build westward
into the Bahamas to the south of Alex. A surface trough will
linger across the NE waters through Thu.

$$
Stripling/Lewitsky
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