[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022307
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Jun 2 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential Tropical Cyclone One is centered near 21.4N 87.5W at
02/2100 UTC or 70 nm NNW or Cozumel, Mexico moving N at 4 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate to
isolated strong convection is observed east of the center from 18N
to 23N between 80W and 85W. Scattered moderate convection is also
noted within 60 nm of the low center. Potential Tropical Cyclone
One is forecast to develop into a tropical depression or storm
over the next 12-24 hours as the system moves NE. Please read the
latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center
at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 28W from 02N to
13N, moving westward at 15 kt. Convection associated with the
tropical wave remains weak at this time.

A tropical wave approaching the Windward Islands has its axis
along 61W from 01N to 13N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is from 08N to 13N between 59W and 63W.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also observed over NE
Venezuela.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis passes through the coastal plains of
Guinea near 09N14W to 07N15W. The ITCZ continues from 07N15W to
05N23W. The ITCZ resumes at 04N29W and continues to 03N40W to the
coast of French Guiana near 05N52W. Scattered moderate convection
is observed from 02N to 07N between 14W to 26W. Scattered
moderate convection is also observed from 02N to 07N between 33W
and 51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for details on Potential
Tropical Cyclone One over the Yucatan Peninsula.

Scattered moderate convection extends from the Yucatan Channel
north to 24N between the Florida Straits and 87W. Fresh to strong
SE-E winds associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One are
impacting the Yucatan Channel, extending north to 25N. Winds are
moderate across the majority of the basin with gentle conditions
in the western Gulf. Seas are 6-9 ft in the SE Gulf and 4-6 ft
elsewhere.

For the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone One will move to
22.3N 87.4W Fri morning, 23.5N 86.5W Fri afternoon, 24.8N 84.9W
Sat morning, 26.5N 82.3W Sat afternoon, 28.7N 79.3W Sun morning,
and 30.6N 76.0W Sun afternoon. PTC One will change little in
intensity as it moves to near 33.5N 70.0W Mon afternoon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details on Potential
Tropical Cyclone One over the Yucatan Peninsula.

In the NW Carribbean, fresh to strong S-SE winds and 6-10 ft seas
persist in association with PTC One. Conditions are more favorable
in the central and eastern Caribbean with gentle to moderate
trades and 3-5 ft seas.

As for the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone One will move to
22.3N 87.4W Fri morning, 23.5N 86.5W Fri afternoon, 24.8N 84.9W
Sat morning, 26.5N 82.3W Sat afternoon, 28.7N 79.3W Sun morning,
and 30.6N 76.0W Sun afternoon. PTC One will change little in
intensity as it moves to near 33.5N 70.0W Mon afternoon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

1012 mb low pressure NE of the Bahamas is centered near 28N76W.
The potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone
has diminished today. A surface trough extends E from this
feature, with scattered moderate convection observed from 26N to
29N between 66W and 74W. Winds are gentle to locally moderate in
the western Atlantic with slight seas. A 1024 mb high pressure
centered near 31N31W dominates the central Atlantic. The gradient
between this feature and lower pressure in vicinity of the monsoon
trough/ITCZ is generating moderate to fresh NE winds in the
eastern Atlantic and south of 20N in the central Atlantic with 6-8
ft seas.

As for the forecast west of 55W, Potential Tropical Cyclone One
will move to 22.3N 87.4W Fri morning, 23.5N 86.5W Fri afternoon,
24.8N 84.9W Sat morning, 26.5N 82.3W Sat afternoon, 28.7N 79.3W
Sun morning, and 30.6N 76.0W Sun afternoon. PTC One will change
little in intensity as it moves to near 33.5N 70.0W Mon afternoon.

$$
Flynn
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