[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030557
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Jun 03 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE is near 21.9N
86.9W, or about 83 nm / 152 km N of Cozumel in Mexico, and about
390 nm / 720 km SW of Fort Myers in Florida. The low pressure
center is moving NE, or 40 degrees, 05 knots. The estimated
minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. The maximum sustained wind
speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots. Fresh to strong S-SE
winds, and 6-10 foot seas, are in the NW corner of the Caribbean
Sea, with the Potential Tropical Cyclone.
Precipitation: numerous strong is in central Cuba and the
surrounding waters, in the Yucatan Channel and the surrounding
areas, and in the Gulf of Honduras and the surrounding areas.
Other isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from
15N to 26N between 76W and 90W, including in the Atlantic Ocean,
and in the NW Caribbean Sea, and nearby land areas. The
Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce heavy rains in
the eastern sections of the Yucatan Peninsula, the Cayman
Islands and western Cuba through Friday. Heavy rains will begin
to affect South Florida and the Florida Keys beginning on
Friday, and continuing through Saturday. Potential Tropical
Cyclone One is forecast to develop into a tropical depression or
a tropical storm during the next 12-24 hours, as the system
moves NE. Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST, that is
issued by the National Hurricane Center,
at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest
Public Advisory, at www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 28W/29W, from 14N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: any nearby
precipitation is related more to the ITCZ.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 61W/62W, from 14N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is within 120 nm to the east of the
tropical wave, in the waters. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is inland, from 07N southward,
between 63W and 70W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 78W/79W, from 12N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is within 120 nm on either side of
the tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
near 08N13W, to 06N18W. The ITCZ continues from 06N18W, to
04N23W 06N30W 03N40W 02N47W 03N49W. Precipitation: numerous
strong is from 05N to 07N between 33W and 42W, and from 05N to
08N between 47W and 51W. widely scattered to scattered moderate,
and isolated to widely scattered strong, are within 300 nm to
the south of 09N13W 08N30W 09N50W 13N60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
Potential Tropical Cyclone One, that is in the northern parts of
the Yucatan Peninsula.

Fresh to strong SE-E winds, associated with the Potential
Tropical Cyclone One, are impacting the Yucatan Channel,
extending northward to 25N. The wind speeds are moderate in the
majority of the Gulf of Mexico; gentle conditions are in the
western Gulf. The wave heights range from 6 feet to 9 feet in
the SE Gulf of Mexico, and they range from 4 feet to 6 feet
elsewhere.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One along NE coast of Yucatan
Peninsula near 21.8N 87.4W 1003 mb at 0300 UTC moving N at 5 kt.
Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. One will begin to
move NE overnight across the SE Gulf of Mexico and reach near
22.5N 87.1W Fri morning as a Tropical Depression, near 23.9N
85.7W Fri evening as a Tropical Storm, then continue NE and
across S central Florida Sat, reaching near to 27.6N 80.6W Sat
evening, then continue NE across the western Atlc through Sun.
Weak high pressure will dominate the Gulf after the exit of One.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
Potential Tropical Cyclone One, that is in the northern parts of
the Yucatan Peninsula.

Fresh to strong S-SE winds, and wave heights that range from 6
feet to 10 feet, are in the NW Caribbean Sea, related to the
Potential Tropical Cyclone One. The conditions are comparatively
more favorable in the central and eastern sections of the
Caribbean Sea, with gentle to moderate winds,
and wave heights that are ranging from 3 feet to 5 feet.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One along NE coast of Yucatan
Peninsula near 21.8N 87.4W 1003 mb at 0300 UTC moving N at 5 kt.
Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. One will begin to
move NE overnight across the SE Gulf of Mexico and reach near
22.5N 87.1W Fri morning as a Tropical Depression, near 23.9N
85.7W Fri evening as a Tropical Storm, then continue NE and
across S central Florida Sat, reaching near to 27.6N 80.6W Sat
evening, then continue NE across the western Atlc where it will
intensify modestly, then  move N of 31N Sun evening. Strong
winds and high seas will continue across the NW Caribbean
through midday Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is along 28N/29N between 70W and 76W. Earlier
upper level cyclonic wind flow has become comparatively more
westerly with time, in the area that is from Hispaniola and Cuba
northward from 60W westward. An upper level cyclonic circulation
center remains near 31N70W. Precipitation: broken to overcast
multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong,
are from 20N northward from 50W westward.

A surface ridge extends from a 1024 mb high pressure center that
is near 32N30W, to 27N43W 24N60W 23N80W. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow spans the Atlantic Ocean from 16N
northward, away from the 28N/29N surface trough that is between
70W and 76W.

The winds are gentle to locally moderate in the western Atlantic
Ocean, with slight seas. A 1024 mb high pressure center is near
32N30W. The surface pressure gradient, that is between the 1024
mb high pressure center and lower pressure that is near the
monsoon trough/ITCZ, is generating moderate to fresh NE winds in
the eastern Atlantic Ocean, and south of 20N in the central
Atlantic Ocean, with wave heights ranging from 6 feet to 8 feet.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One along NE coast of Yucatan
Peninsula near 21.8N 87.4W 1003 mb at 0300 UTC moving N at 5 kt.
Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. One will begin to
move NE overnight across the SE Gulf of Mexico and reach near
22.5N 87.1W Fri morning as a Tropical Depression, than continue
NE and across S central Florida Sat, reaching near 27.6N 80.6W
as a Tropical Storm Sat evening, then accelerate NE across the W
Atlc and reach near 31.6N 74.1W Sun evening. One will intensify
modestly across the Atlc, and exit the region Mon afternoon.
High pressure will build westward into the Bahamas Tue.

$$
mt/ss
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