[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021739
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Jun 2 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A broad 1003 mb low pressure located near 21N87.5W over the
northeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula continues to produce
a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are
currently 4-7 ft. Despite strong upper-level
winds, this system is likely to become a tropical depression or
tropical storm while it moves slowly northeastward over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico during
the next day or two.  Interests in western Cuba, the Florida Keys,
the Florida Peninsula, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor
the progress of this system, and tropical storm watches or warnings
will likely be required for some of these areas later today.
Regardless of development, areas of heavy rainfall are likely
across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba during
the next day or so, spreading across southern and central Florida
and the Florida Keys Friday and Friday night, and the northwestern
Bahamas on Saturday.  These heavy rains could cause scattered to
numerous flash floods across South Florida and the Florida Keys.
This system has a high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone
during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest Atlantic
Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane
Center at the website: www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 27W from 02N to 13N,
moving westward at 15 kt. No convection is associated with the
tropical wave at this time.

A tropical wave approaching the Windward Islands has its axis
along 60W from 01N to 13N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is from 08N to 12N between 59W and 64W.
Isolated showers are noted over northern Guyana.

A tropical wave has its axis along 77W south of 12N, moving
westward at around 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted across the
SW Caribbean.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis passes through the coastal plains of
Guinea near 10N14W to 08N15W. The ITCZ continues from 08N15W to
05N24W. The ITCZ resumes at 04N29W and continues to 03N40W to the
coast of French Guiana near 05N52W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is within 180 nm north of the ITCZ
between 32W and 49W. An additional area of scattered moderate
convection is from 07N to 12N between 50W and 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for details about a
broad low pressure over the Yucatan Peninsula with a high chance
of developing into a tropical cyclone.

Scattered moderate convection is within the Yucatan Channel north
to 24N between 84W and 87W. Fresh to strong E to NE winds with
4-7 ft seas are also noted in this region. These conditions are
associated with the aforementioned broad low pressure.

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate E to NE winds and 2-4 ft seas
prevail in the Gulf of Mexico.

For the forecast, gradual development of the broad low pressure
is forecast, and the system is likely to become a tropical
depression or tropical storm while it moves slowly northeastward
over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of
Mexico during the next day or two. Interests in western Cuba, the Florida
Keys, the Florida Peninsula, and the northwestern Bahamas should
monitor the progress of this system, and tropical storm watches or
warnings will likely be required for some of these areas later
today. Currently, fresh to strong winds and building seas are
expected S of Cuba, mainly between 80W and 85W, and in the SE
Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details about a
broad low pressure over the Yucatan Peninsula with a high chance
of developing into a tropical cyclone.

In the NW Carribbean, fresh to strong SE winds and 5-8 ft seas
persist in association with the broad low pressure expected to
develop into a tropical cyclone. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is from 18N to 22N between 82W and 87W; frequent
lightning is evident on GOES-16 Geostationary Lightning Mapper
data. Last night, Cabo San Antonio in Pinar del Rio, Cuba,
reported 3.5 inches of rain.

Elsewhere in the central and eastern Caribbean, gentle to moderate
trades prevail with 3-5 ft seas. Patches of low level moisture in
the trade winds may contribute to showers today.

As for the forecast, gradual development of the broad low pressure
over the Yucatan Peninsula is forecast, and this system is likely
to become a tropical depression or tropical storm while it moves
slowly northeastward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or two. Interests
in western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida Peninsula
should monitor the progress of this system, and tropical storm
watches or warnings could be required for some of these areas
later today. Currently, fresh to strong winds and building seas
are expected S of Cuba, mainly between 80W and 85W. Very active
weather will continue over the northwestern Caribbean into the
weekend. Otherwise, generally moderate to fresh trades will
continue through the forecast period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

1012 mb low pressure is centered near 28N76W NE of the Bahamas.
Shower activity has diminished since the last discussion was
issued, and development of this system is not expected while it
moves northeastward at 5 to 10 mph over the southwestern Atlantic
during the next couple of days. No significant winds or seas are
occurring with this feature. 1023 mb high pressure centered
southwest of the Azores near 29N33W is imposing anticyclonic flow
over the tropical Atlantic, with light to gentle winds north of
20N, and gentle to moderate winds south of 20N. Winds are locally
fresh from 06N to 18N between 30W and 40W and near the coast of
Africa from 18N to 25N east of 20W, according to the latest
scatterometer data. Seas are 3-6 ft across the basin, locally 7 ft
in open waters. Scattered showers are noted north of 29N between
64W and 72W, and near the Bahamas.

As for the forecast, shower activity associated with a weak
surface trough located about 200 miles east-northeast of the
northwestern Bahamas has diminished, and upper-level winds remain
strong in the area. Development of this system is not expected
while it moves northeastward at 5 to 10 mph over the southwestern
Atlantic during the next couple of days. A broad area of low
pressure located over the northeastern portion of the Yucatan
Peninsula is forecast to undergo gradual development. It is likely
to become a tropical cyclone over the next couple of days as it
tracks northeastward toward the Florida peninsula. This
approaching system will likely impact much of the area with
increasing winds and building seas beginning late Fri night and
possibly into Mon.

$$
Mahoney
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net