[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021154
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Jun 02 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1004 mb low pressure is centered just north of Cozumel, Mexico
near 21N87W at 0900 UTC, moving slowly northeastward. This low
is embedded within a broad area of low pressure that is located
near the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Satellite imagery
shows disorganized clusters of scattered to numerous moderate to
isolated strong convection within this area of broad low
pressure over the waters north of 15N and west of 79W. Strong
east to southeast winds were highlighted by overnight ASCAT data
passes over this part of the Caribbean. Despite strong upper-
level winds, this system is likely to become a tropical
depression or tropical storm while it moves slowly northeastward
over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of
Mexico during the next day or two. Interests in western Cuba,
the Florida Keys, and the Florida Peninsula should monitor the
progress of this system, and tropical storm watches or warnings
could be required for some of these areas later today. This
system has a high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during
the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest Atlantic Ocean
Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center
at the website: www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave was introduced on the
surface map at 0600 UTC along 26W from 02N to 13N based on
diagnostic guidance from Albany-SUNY and on the CIMSS MIMIC
Total Precipitable Water (TPW) animation imagery. It is moving
westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 180
nm either side of the wave from 05N to 07N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 59W from 01N
to 14N, moving westward at 15 knots. Scattered moderate small
clusters of convection are within 60 nm east of the wave from
08N to 10N. Larger clusters of moderate convection are over
South America within 120 nm east and 60 nm west of the wave axis.

A Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 76W south of 12N.
It is moving westward around 13 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is within 60 nm west of the wave from 08N to 10N.
This convection is being aided by the eastern segment of the
eastern Pacific monsoon trough.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis passes through the coastal plains of
Guinea near 10N14W to 09N16W. The ITCZ continues from 09N16W to
04N30W, 07N49W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 39W-45W. Scattered
mdoerate convection is within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between
32W-39W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for details about a
1004 mb low pressure center that is just off the coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula, and that is associated to a broad area of low
pressure. This system has a high potential for tropical cyclone
formation.

A relatively weak surface ridge extends from a 1014 mb high
center over the western Florida panhandle to the southwestern
Gulf near 24N96W.

Light to gentle east winds along with wave heights of 2-4 ft are
in the northern and eastern Gulf of Mexico. The surface pressure
gradient that is between the ridge and the broad area of low
pressure that is near the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula is
supporting moderate to fresh east winds and wave heights of 4-6
ft seas.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted over the
Bay of Campeche and vicinity of the Yucatan Channel. This
activity is related to the aforementioned broad low pressure
area.

As for the forecast, the broad area of low pressure located near
the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula is forecast to undergo
gradual development is forecast, and this system is likely to
become a tropical depression or tropical storm while it moves
slowly northeastward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days.
Expect for shower and thunderstorm activity to increase in the
southeastern and south-central Gulf sections through Sat.
Otherwise, a high pressure ridge extends from the western
Atlantic across the northern Gulf. This will maintain gentle to
moderate easterly winds over the western and central Gulf waters
through Fri. Winds in the central Gulf and eastern Bay of
Campeche become fresh northeast winds today through Fri night in
response to the pressure gradient associated to the expected
tropical cyclone. The pressure gradient between the high
pressure and lower pressure west of the area will strengthen
some starting Sun allowing for fresh return flow to set up over
the western Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details about a
1004 mb low pressure center that is just off the coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula, and that is associated to a broad area of low
pressure. This system has a high potential for tropical cyclone
formation.

The surface pressure gradient between the Bermuda high pressure,
and the Special Features 1004 mb low pressure center, is
supporting fresh to strong SE winds and 5 to 8 ft seas in the
northwest and west central sections of the Caribbean Sea. Light
to gentle winds along with wave heights of 3-5 ft are in the
southwestern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate easterly winds and
wave heights of 4-6 ft are in the central sections of the sea.
Gentle easterly trade winds and wave heights of 3-4 ft are in
the eastern part of the sea.

Isolated showers are over the far southeastern Caribbean ahead
of the tropical wave that is approaching the Windward Islands.

As for the forecast, the broad area of low pressure located
near the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula is forecast to
undergo gradual development is forecast, and this system is
likely to become a tropical depression or tropical storm while
it moves slowly northeastward over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of
days. Very active weather and strong east to southeast winds will
continue over the northwestern Caribbean into the weekend.
Otherwise, generally moderate to fresh trades will continue
through the forecast period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A western Atlantic surface trough is analyzed from near 28N73W
to the central Bahamas and to just north of central Cuba near
23N78W. A mid to upper-level low is noted on water vapor imagery
to the northwest of this trough near 29N80W. It is moving south.
These features are sustaining scattered moderate convection
northeast and east of the Bahamas from 26N to 29N between 65W-
69W, and from 27N to 29N between 69W-73W. An area of mostly
overcast multilayer clouds with embedded areas of moderate rain
and scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms is noted south
of 25N west of 68W to the Straits of Florida and over Cuba as
well.

A 1019 mb high pressure center is near 31N34W. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow spans the Atlantic Ocean from 16N
northward from 64W eastward. Gentle to moderate winds along with
2-4 ft wave heights are over the waters west of 55W. Expect
gentle to moderate winds north of 20N and moderate to fresh
trade winds more to the south, with 5-7 ft wave heights east of
55W.

As for the forecast, the mid to upper-level low near 29N80W will
continue moving south today while weakening. The scattered
moderate convection that is northeast and east of the Bahamas is
expected to longer through the day and possibly into the evening.
A broad area of low pressure located near the east coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula is forecast to undergo gradual development. It
is likely to become a tropical cyclone over the next couple of
days as it tracks northeastward. This approaching system will
likely impact much of the area beginning late Fri night and
possibly into Mon. Weak high pressure over the area will shift
to the eastern part of the area by early next week in response
to the low pressure system.

$$
Aguirre
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