[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012329
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Jun 2 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2320 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A broad 1006 mb low pressure located just east of the Belize-
Mexico border over the northwest Caribbean waters near 19N87W is
interacting with a mid-level trough over the Yucatan Peninsula.
This process is producing widespread deep convection over the
northwest and west-central Caribbean Sea. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and this
system is likely to become a tropical depression while it moves
northeastward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely
across portions of southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula,
and Belize during the next day or so, spreading across western
Cuba, South Florida, and the Florida Keys on Friday and Saturday.
Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula, western Cuba, the Florida
Keys, and the Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of
this system.

This disturbance has a high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone
during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest Atlantic
Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center
at the website:
https://nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2 for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 56W south of 13N into
Suriname, and moving westward near 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is from 07N to 10N between 53W and 55W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 75W south of 11N
across central Colombia, and moving westward near 15 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 12N between
74W and 76W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough remains mostly over central Africa with its axis
near the Senegal/Mauritania coast at 16.5N16W and reaching
westward to 15N20W. The ITCZ reaches from 08N17W to 03N38W to
07N47W to 07N53W. Scattered moderate convection is active from
05N to 09N between 16W and 20W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted from 08N to 10N between 45W and 49W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for details about a
tropical disturbance near the Yucatan Peninsula that has a high
potential for tropical cyclone formation.

High pressure over the lower Mississippi Valley is supporting
light to gentle E breezes across the northern and eastern Gulf,
with 2 to 4 ft seas. Elsewhere, the gradient between the high
pressure and developing broad low pressure over the northwest
Caribbean is supporting moderate to fresh E breezes and 4 to 6 ft
seas. Divergence aloft on the southeast side of a mid/upper
trough extending from the north- central Gulf to the southwest
Gulf is supporting a few showers off the northwest coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula.

For the forecast, the broad low pressure over the northwest
Caribbean likely to become a tropical depression while it moves
slowly northeastward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or two.
Elsewhere, a high pressure ridge extends from the western
Atlantic across the northern Gulf. This will maintain moderate to
locally fresh southeast winds over the western and central Gulf
through tonight. Winds there become fresh to strong in the
southeast Gulf through late Fri in response to the area of low
pressure.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details about a
tropical disturbance near the Yucatan Peninsula that has a high
potential for tropical cyclone formation.

The pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and the low
mentioned in the Special Features section is supporting fresh to
strong SE winds and 5 to 8 ft seas across the northwest and west-
central basin. Light to gentle winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are
evident for the southwestern basin. Gentle to moderate easterly
trades and seas at 4 to 6 ft are found over the central basin.
Gentle easterly trades and seas of 3 to 4 ft prevail across the
eastern basin.

For the forecast, strong southerly winds and rough seas will
impact the far northwest Caribbean through late Fri mainly north
of 20N and west of 80W, to include the Yucatan Channel. These
winds and seas will diminish Sat through Sun as the low pressure
moves farther north of the area. Moderate fresh E to SE winds
and moderate seas will persist elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A mid to upper-level low near 30N76W and its related surface
trough are causing scattered moderate convection east of the
northern Bahamas from 24N to 26N between 71W and 75W. This is
also east of an associated surface trough reaching from 31N74W
through the northern Bahamas. 1018 mb high pressure is centered
near 29N61W. This pattern is maintaining gentle to moderate winds
and 2 to 4 ft seas over most of the waters west of 55W. Farther
west, 1021 mb high pressure is centered near 29N35W. This is
supporting gentle to moderate winds north of 20N and moderate to
fresh trade winds farther south, with mostly 5 to 7 ft seas east
of 55W.

For the forecast, a broad area of low pressure located near the east
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and Yucatan Peninsula. Gradual development is
expected and this system is likely to become a tropical depression
while it moves slowly northeastward over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next day
or two. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is
likely across western Cuba, South Florida, and the Florida Keys on
Friday and Saturday.

$$
Christensen
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