[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 020555
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Jun 02 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The NW Caribbean Sea:

A 1004 mb low pressure center is near 19.5N87W, about 45 nm to
the east of the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation:
broken to overcast multilayered clouds cover the NW corner of
the Caribbean Sea, from from 14N northward from the Windward
Passage westward. Scattered moderate to strong in clusters is in
the waters from Jamaica westward from 14N northward, and inland
in the Yucatan Peninsula. Clouds and precipitation are in the SW
corner of the Gulf of Mexico from 23N southward. A middle level
to upper level trough is on top of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Gradual development of this system is forecast. This feature is
likely to become a tropical depression, while it moves slowly
northeastward, through the NW Caribbean Sea and the SE Gulf of
Mexico during the next day or two. locally heavy rainfall is
likely in parts of the Yucatan Peninsula during the next day or
so, with the rain amounts spreading across western Cuba, South
Florida, and the Florida Keys on Friday and Saturday. Anyone who
has interests in the Yucatan Peninsula, western Cuba, the
Florida Keys, and the Florida Peninsula should monitor the
progress of this system. The chance of development into a
tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is high. Please, refer
to the latest Atlantic Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook, issued by
the National Hurricane Center, at the website:
https://nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2, for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57W/58W, from 13N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: widely
scattered to scattered moderate, and isolated to widely
scattered strong, are in South America, from 05N southward
between 55W and 59W. Widely scattered to scattered moderate, and
isolated to widely scattered strong, are in the Atlantic Ocean
from 13N southward, between 49W at the western end of the ITCZ
and the 57W/58W tropical wave

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W, from 12N southward,
moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered to
scattered moderate, and isolated to widely scattered strong, are
in Colombia, from 04N to 09N between 73W and 77W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
near 10N14W, to 09N16W. The ITCZ continues from 09N16W, to
04N30W, 07N49W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered
moderate, and isolated to widely scattered strong, are within
120 nm to 180 nm on either side of the monsoon trough/ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about a
1004 mb low pressure center that is just off the coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula. This feature has a high potential for
tropical cyclone formation.

A surface ridge extends from a 1015 mb eastern Alabama high
pressure center, to the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, near
19N96W at the coast of Mexico.

Light to gentle E breezes, and 2 to 4 foot waves, are in the
northern and eastern Gulf of Mexico. The surface pressure
gradient, that is between the Alabama high pressure and
developing broad NW Caribbean Sea low pressure, is supporting
moderate to fresh E breezes and 4 to 6 ft seas. Precipitation
that is to the south of the line 26N81W 26N90W 24N98W, is
related to the developing low pressure that is in the NW
Caribbean Sea.

A broad area of low pressure located near the east coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
Yucatan Peninsula. Gradual development is forecast, and this
system is likely to become a tropical depression while it moves
slowly northeastward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days.
Expect for shower and thunderstorm activity to increase in the
southeastern and south-central Gulf sections through Sat.
Otherwise, a high pressure ridge extends from the western
Atlantic across the northern Gulf. This will maintain moderate
to fresh easterly winds over the western and central Gulf waters
through late tonight. Winds in the central Gulf and eastern Bay
of Campeche become fresh northeast winds Thu through Fri night
in response to the expected tropical cyclone. The pressure
gradient, between the high pressure and lower pressure west of
the area, will strengthen some starting Sun, allowing for fresh
return flow to set up in the western Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about a
1004 mb low pressure center that is just off the coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula. This feature has a high potential for
tropical cyclone formation.

The surface pressure gradient, between the Bermuda high
pressure, and the SPECIAL FEATURES 1004 mb low pressure center,
is supporting fresh to strong SE winds and 5 to 8 ft seas in the
northwest and west central sections of the Caribbean Sea. Light
to gentle winds, and 3 to 5 ft seas, are in the SW corner of the
area. Gentle to moderate easterly winds, 4 to 6 foot sea
heights, are in the central sections. Gentle easterly
tradewinds, and seas of 3 to 4 feet, are in the eastern part of
the area.

A broad area of low pressure located near the east coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
Yucatan Peninsula. Gradual development is forecast, and this
system is likely to become a tropical depression while it moves
slowly northeastward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days. Very
active weather will continue in the northwestern Caribbean into
the weekend. Otherwise, generally moderate to fresh trades will
continue through the forecast period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough curves along 30N76W 25N76W 22N78W. Upper level
cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from Hispaniola and
Cuba northward from 70W westward. Precipitation: widely
scattered to scattered moderate, and isolated to widely
scattered strong, are from 25N southward between 70W and 80W,
and within 450 nm to the east of the surface trough.

A 1019 mb high pressure center is near 31N34W. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow spans the Atlantic Ocean from 16N
northward from 64W eastward. Gentle to moderate winds, and 2 to
4 foot seas, are in most of the waters from 55W westward. Expect
gentle to moderate winds north of 20N; and moderate to fresh
trade winds more to the south, with mostly 5 to 7 foot seas east
of 55W.

A mid to upper-level low north of the NW Bahamas is is enhancing
scattered shower and thunderstorms activity east and northeast
of the Bahamas. A broad area of low pressure located near the
east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula is forecast to undergo
gradual development. It is likely to become a tropical cyclone
over the next couple of days as it tracks northeastward. This
approaching system will likely impact much of the area beginning
late Fri night and possibly into Mon. Weak high pressure over
the area will shift to the eastern part of the area by early
next week in response to the low pressure system.

$$
MT/JA
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