[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011808
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Jun 1 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A broad 1006 mb low pressure located just east of the Belize-
Mexico border over the northwest Caribbean waters near 18.8N87.2W
is interacting with a mid-level trough over the Yucatan Peninsula.
This process is producing widespread deep convection over the
northwest and west-central Caribbean Sea, including the coast of
Honduras and Nicaragua. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for gradual development, and this system is likely to become a
tropical depression while it moves northeastward over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico during
the next couple of days. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rainfall is likely across portions of southeastern Mexico, the
Yucatan Peninsula, and Belize during the next day or so, spreading
across western Cuba, South Florida, and the Florida Keys on Friday
and Saturday. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula, western Cuba,
the Florida Keys, and the Florida Peninsula should monitor the
progress of this system.

This disturbance has a high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone
during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest Atlantic
Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center
at the website:
https://nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2 for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 54W south of 13N into
Suriname, and moving westward near 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is from 07N to 10N between 53W and 58W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 73W south of 11N across
eastern Colombia, and moving westward near 15 kt. No significant
convection is seen near this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough remains mostly over central Africa with its axis
near the Senegal coast at 14N17W. Convergent monsoon winds are
triggering numerous moderate convection near the Sierra Leone and
Liberia coast from 04N to 10N between 10W and 17W. An ITCZ extends
from 07N19W across 03N40W to 07N51W. Scattered moderate convection
is seen from 02N to 06N between 25W and 40W, and from 04N to 11N
between 40W and 51W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A mid-level low and its associated surface trough are generating
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Bay of
Campeche. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are
present in the Bay. A surface ridge reaches southwestward from a
1019 mb high over the southeastern U.S. across New Orleans to near
Tampico, Mexico. Gentle to moderate easterly winds with 2 to 5 ft
seas are noted over the northern and southeastern Gulf.
Tightening gradient between this ridge and the low mentioned in
the Special Features section is creating easterly moderate to
fresh winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft over the south-central Gulf,
including the Yucatan Channel.

As for the forecast, as the low in the Special Features section
tracks northeastward across the Yucatan Channel into the southeastern
Gulf and gradually develops, expect increasing winds and seas over
the next few days. Widespread convection capable of producing
locally heavy rainfall is likely across portions of southeastern
Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula, spreading across western Cuba,
South Florida, and the Florida Keys on Friday and Saturday.
Otherwise, the surface ridge will maintain moderate to fresh
SE winds over the western and central Gulf through tonight. Winds
there become fresh in the southeastern Gulf through late Fri in
response to the area of low pressure.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details about a
tropical disturbance near the Yucatan Peninsula that has a high
potential for tropical cyclone formation.

The pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and the low
mentioned in the Special Features section is supporting fresh to
strong SE winds and 5 to 8 ft seas across the northwest and west-
central basin. Light to gentle winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are
evident for the southwestern basin. Gentle to moderate easterly
trades and seas at 4 to 6 ft are found over the central basin.
Gentle easterly trades and seas of 3 to 4 ft prevail across the
eastern basin.

As for the forecast, the tropical disturbance is likely to become
a tropical depression while it moves northeastward over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico during
the next couple of days. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rainfall is likely across portions of southeastern Mexico, the
Yucatan Peninsula, and Belize during the next day or so, spreading
across western Cuba on Friday and Saturday. Otherwise, generally
moderate to fresh trades will continue through the period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A mid to upper-level low near 30N75W and its related surface
trough are causing scattered moderate convection north of the
Bahamas from 24N to beyond 31N between 70W and 76W, and also over
the central Bahamas. A surface trough is near 25N55W is
generating scattered showers and a few thunderstorms from 22N to
28N between 46W and 56W. Small isolated showers and thunderstorms
are within 60 nm either side of this trough from 20N to 24N, and
from 25N to 27N. In the far eastern Atlantic, a weak cold front
curves from near Merida across 31N17W to 28N23W. Patchy showers
are seen up to 70 nm northwest of this feature. Refer to the
Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional
weather in the Atlantic Basin.

The Atlantic ridge is dominating the area with light to gentle
winds and 3 to 5 ft seas north of 20N between the northwest
African coast and 70W. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh ENE
to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are evident north of 23N between
70W and the Florida-Georgia coast. Moderate to fresh NE trades and
5 to 7 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin.

As for the forecast, the mid to upper-level low and related
trough will shift northeast from the Bahamas over the next few
days. It will continue to bring showers and thunderstorms to most
of the western part of the area through Fri. A large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and Yucatan Peninsula is associated
with a broad area of low pressure. This system is likely to become
a tropical depression while it moves northeastward over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico during
the next couple of days. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rainfall is likely across South Florida, and the Florida Keys on
Friday and Saturday.

$$

Chan
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