[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152243
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Jul 16 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is located just west of the
Cabo Verde Islands near 27W, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is present from 06N to 10N between 21W and
32W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 50W from 16N southward,
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 09N-12N between 43W-53W.

An Atlantic tropical wave over the Lesser Antilles along 61W,
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. No significant deep convection is
present currently with this wave.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 72W, extending from
Haiti to western Venezuela and Colombia, moving W at 10 to 15
kt. No significant deep convection is present currently with
this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W to
08N36W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 11N
between the central African coast and 22W. The eastern North
Pacific monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near 10N83W to the
coast of Colombia near 10N76W. Aside from the convection
associated with the tropical waves noted above, there is no
significant deep convection noted.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure ridging associated with the subtropical Atlantic
high is producing fair weather in the central Gulf. Scattered
showers and tstorms are in the N Gulf. Winds in the western Gulf
are from the SE and gentle to moderate, with 2-4 ft seas.
Elsewhere, easterly winds dominate and are gentle with 1-2 ft
seas.

For the forecast, the ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf
region this weekend into early next week, producing mainly gentle
winds with the exception of gentle to moderate SE to S winds
across the NW and west-central waters. A surface trough over the
Yucatan Peninsula will support nightly pulses of fresh to locally
strong NE winds to the west of the Peninsula during this period.
Moderate to fresh southerly winds are expected over the western
Gulf toward the end of the forecast period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A NE to ENE tradewind regime continues over the entire Caribbean
Sea. Moderate to fresh winds persist in the south-central
Caribbean, with 6-7 ft seas. In the north-central Caribbean,
trades are mainly moderate with 4-6 ft seas. In the E Caribbean,
trades are gentle to moderate with 4-6 ft seas. In the W
Caribbean, trades are gentle to moderate with 3-6 ft seas.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
north of the basin and the Colombian/Panamanian low will lead to
fresh to locally strong winds in the south-central Caribbean this
weekend. Fresh trade winds and seas in the 6 to 9 ft range in NE
swell are expected across the waters E of the Lesser Antilles
this weekend. The aerial extent of the trades will increase
across the Caribbean waters early on Sun as high pressure N of
the area strengthens.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

At 2100 UTC a surface trough is analyzed between Florida and the
Bahamas from 27N78W to 24N80W. This surface trough is located
under a broad Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) centered
over the northwest Bahamas. Isolated moderate convection
associated with these features is impacting the central Bahamas
from 24N-29N between 72W-78W. North of 20N and west of 40W,
gentle to moderate trade winds dominate the area, with seas of
4-7 ft. South of 20N, west of 40W, moderate to fresh E winds
prevail, with 6-8 ft seas. Gentle to moderate NE winds dominate
the remainder of the tropical Atlantic east of 40W, with seas of
5-7 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, the Atlantic ridge that extends
across the forecast region toward Florida will slowly shift NE
through the weekend. This will allow trades to expand northward,
and pulses of strong winds will impact areas north of Hispaniola
each night through the weekend. Expect scattered showers and
thunderstorms to continue over most of the western part of area,
including the Bahamas, through the weekend, as an upper-level low
creates additional instability.

$$
Landsea
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