[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151754
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Jul 15 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is located just west of the
Cabo Verde Islands near 26W, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is present from 06N to 10N between 22W and 28W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 49W from 16N southward,
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is associated
with the wave at this time.

An Atlantic tropical wave is just east of the Lesser Antilles
along 60W, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is noted near the Windward Islands and in the SE Caribbean, from
10N to 12N between 61W and 65W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 71W, extending from
central Dominican Republic to western Venezuela and eastern
Colombia, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Convection present overnight
and early this morning has dissipated.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau to 07N35W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 11N between
the central African coast and 22W. Another area of scattered
moderate convection, associated with he monsoon trough is found
south of 10N between 30W and 34W. The ITCZ meets the monsoon
trough at 07N35W and continues until 06N47W. Showers are noted
north of the ITCZ, along 10N.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure ridging associated with the subtropical Atlantic
high is producing fair weather in the central Gulf. Scattered
showers and tstorms are in the NE Gulf. A line of scattered
showers and t-storms associated with a upper-level trough are
noted 120nm off the coast of Mexico and Texas. Winds in the
western Gulf are from the SE and gentle to moderate, with 2-4 ft
seas. Elsewhere, easterly winds dominate and are gentle with 1-2
ft seas.

For the forecast, the weak high pressure centered in the northern
Gulf will dominate through the weekend, creating gentle winds
across much of the basin. A surface trough over the Yucatan
Peninsula will support nightly pulses of fresh NE winds to the
west of the Peninsula during this period. Southerly winds will
increase to moderate speeds over the far western Gulf early next
week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A NE to ENE trade-wind regime continues over the entire Caribbean
Sea. Moderate to fresh winds persist in the south-central
Caribbean, with 6-7 ft seas. In the north-central Caribbean,
trades are mainly moderate with 4-6 ft seas. In the E Caribbean,
trades are gentle to moderate with 4-6 ft seas. In the W
Caribbean, trades are gentle to moderate with 3-6 ft seas.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
north of the basin and the Colombian low to the south will lead to
fresh to locally strong winds in the south-central Caribbean into
the start of next week, with fresh to strong winds also in waters
E of the Lesser Antilles Fri night and Sat. Large NE to E swell
will impact the tropical Atlantic Ocean zones through Sun, then
subside Sun night into Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

At 1500 UTC a surface trough is analyzed between Florida and the
Bahamas from 27N79W to 25N79W. This surface trough is located
under a broad Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) centered
over the northwest Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection associated
with these features is impacting the central Bahamas. North of
20N and west of 40W, gentle to moderate trade winds dominate the
area, with seas of 4-7 ft. South of 20N, west of 40W, moderate to
fresh E winds prevail, with 6-8 ft seas. Gentle to moderate NE
winds dominate the remainder of the tropical Atlantic east of
40W, with seas of 5-7 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, the high pressure that extends from E
of Bermuda to offshore Florida will slowly shift NE through the
weekend. This will allow trades to expand northward, and pulses of
strong winds will impact areas north of Hispaniola each night
through the weekend. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to
continue over most of the western part of area, including the
Bahamas, through the weekend, as an upper-level low creates
additional instability.

$$
Mahoney/Colon-Burgos
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