[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151003
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Jul 15 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is passing through the Cabo
Verde Islands near 25W, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 21W and 27W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 49W from 16N southward,
and moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Convection previously associated with
this wave has diminished.

Another central Atlantic tropical wave is just east of the Lesser
Antilles along 59W, moving W at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is impacting the Windward Islands.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 71W from Haiti to the
Venezuela-Colombia border. Scattered moderate convection is near
the coast of Venezuela and Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean from Senegal and
extends to 11N25W to 08N32W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted south of the trough from 07N to 13N between the central
African coast and 20W. An ITCZ then continues from 08N32W to
05N47W. Convection previously associated with the ITCZ has
diminished.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered moderate convection near the coasts of Costa Rica and
Panama.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A pair of weak surface troughs are impacting the NE Gulf. One
stretches from the western Florida Panhandle to near the mouth of
the Mississippi River. The other is along the west coast of the
Peninsula. Scattered moderate convection is over the NE Gulf from
near New Orleans to the Florida Big Bend. Over the western Bay of
Campeche, numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted
due to a mid-level trough. Winds across most of the Gulf are
gentle, with moderate winds over the SW Gulf. Seas are 1 to 3 ft.

For the forecast, weak high pressure centered in the northern Gulf
will dominate through the weekend, creating gentle winds across
much of the basin. A surface trough over the Yucatan Peninsula
will create nightly pulses of fresh NE winds to the west of the
Peninsula during this period. Southerly winds will increase to
moderate speeds over the far western Gulf early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for
convection across the basin.

A NE to ENE trade-wind regime continues over the entire Caribbean
Sea. Fresh to strong trades and 6 to 8 ft seas are found at the
south-central basin, just north of Colombia and northwestern
Venezuela; and at the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh trades
and seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted for the eastern and north-central
basin. Gentle to moderate trades and seas at 4 to 6 ft are present
at the southwestern basin. Mainly gentle trades and 3 to 4 ft
seas prevail for the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of
the basin and low pressure to the south will lead to fresh to
locally strong winds in the south- central Caribbean into the
start of next week, with some strong winds also in Atlantic
waters Fri night and Sat. Large NE to E swell will impact the
tropical Atlantic Ocean zones through Sat night, then subside Sun
into Mon.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) centered over
the northwest Bahamas is generating scattered moderate convection
from the central Bahamas northwestward to the coast of northern
Florida. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves
sections for additional convection across the Atlantic Basin.

A 1017 surface ridge axis that extends along 31N across much of
the Atlantic. This is creating for areas N of 25N, light to
gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft. South of this, a broad area of
fresh NE to E trades with seas of 6 to 8 ft extend southward to
the ITCZ and monsoon trough.

For the forecast W of 55W, high pressure that extends from E of
Bermuda to offshore Florida will slowly shift NE through the
weekend. This will allow trades to expand northward, and pulses of
strong winds will impact areas north of Hispaniola each night
through the weekend. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to
continue over most of the western part of area, including the
Bahamas, through the weekend, as an upper- level low creates
additional instability.

$$
Konarik
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