[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160559
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Jul 16 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is just west of the Cabo Verde
Islands near 28W from 19N southward, and moving west near 15 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is present from 06N to 09N between
25W and 34W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 52W from 16N southward,
and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 06N to 14N between 51W and 59W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 63W from 21N southward
across Anguilla and St. Martin to northeastern Venezuela, and
moving west near 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are occurring near the ABC Islands and over
northeastern Venezuela.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 73W from western Haiti
southward to near the Venezuela-Colombia border, and moving west
at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
seen over Haiti and northern Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near Dakar
across 10N23W to 08N36W. Scattered moderate convection is found
near and south of the trough from 07N to 10N between the central
African coast and 24W. An ITCZ continues westward from 08N36W
to 07N42W, then northwestward to 11N51W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted up to 90 nm along either side of this
feature.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A robust upper-level trough across the northern Gulf and northern
Florida is triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms from
near New Orleans eastward across the Florida Big Bend to near the
Georgia/Florida border. An upper-level low over the Yucatan
Peninsula is coupling with convergent fresh to strong northeast
surface winds to generate similar conditions at the eastern Bay of
Campeche. Seas range from 3 to 5 ft across the entire Bay of
Campeche. A weak 1018 mb high over the central Gulf is providing
light to gentle winds and 1 to 2 ft seas for the north-central and
northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate NE to E to SE winds and
seas at 2 to 3 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the surface ridge related to the 1018 mb high
will continue to dominate the Gulf region through early next week,
producing mainly gentle winds with the exception of gentle to
moderate SE to S winds across the northwestern and west-central
Gulf. A surface trough over the Yucatan Peninsula will support
nightly pulses of fresh to locally strong NE winds to the west of
the peninsula this weekend. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are
expected over the western Gulf for the latter half of next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section for weather in the Caribbean
Sea. A NE to ENE trade-wind regime continues over the entire
Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh winds along with 6 to 7 ft seas
persist in the south-central Caribbean, north of Colombia. Mainly
gentle winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft are present for the
northwestern basin and near the Nicaragua-Costa Rica coastline.
Moderate to fresh winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the
remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
north of the basin and the Colombian low will lead to fresh with
locally strong winds in the south-central Caribbean through early
next week. Fresh trade winds and seas at the 6 to 9 ft in NE
swell are expected across the waters E of the Lesser Antilles into
Sun. The aerial extent of fresh to strong trades will increase
across the Caribbean waters early on Sun as high pressure north
of the area strengthens.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) over the
northwest Bahamas along with its induced surface trough nearby,
continue to produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
from the northern shore of Cuba northward across the Bahamas to
offshore of northern Florida. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and
Tropical Waves sections for additional weather in the Atlantic
Basin.

An elongated 1025 mb high over the north-central Atlantic is
supporting light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft seas north
of 27N between 35W and 65W. Farther west, gentle SE winds with
seas at 4 to 6 ft are present north of 27N between 65W and the
Georgia/northern Florida coast. To the south, moderate to fresh NE
to ENE trades and 6 to 8 ft seas exist from 10N to 27N between 35W
and the Lesser Antilles; and also from the Greater Antilles to
27N between 65W and the southern Florida coast. Gentle to moderate
NNE to NE trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft are seen near the Canary
Islands, north of 13N between the northwest African coast and
35W. Light to gentle with locally moderate SE and monsoonal winds
with seas at 5 to 7 ft in southerly swell prevail for the rest of
the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the elongated high will drift eastward
this weekend. This will allow trades to expand north, with pulses
of strong winds impacting areas north of Hispaniola each night
into Mon. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to continue
over the southwestern Atlantic, including the Bahamas through the
weekend, as the TUTT sustains instability.

$$

Chan
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