[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132252
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Jul 14 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has been introduced to this analysis, with axis
extending along 35W from 03N-14N. Satellite imagery depicts the
typical inverted V cloud pattern between 31W-40W, and model
diagnostics also predict the presence of the wave in this area.
Scattered showers are noted from 09N-12N between 34W-38W.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 44W from
19N southward, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. No significant
convection is related to this wave at this time.

An Atlantic tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles with
axis along 59W, from 19N southward, moving west at 10-15 kt. No
significant convection is noted at this time.

A W Caribbean tropical wave is along 85W, from 19N southward,
moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection, likely
enhanced by the East Pacific Monsoon Trough, is noted in the SW
Caribbean from the coast of Panama S of 14N and W of 80W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Senegal
near 13N17W to 11N26W. The ITCZ continues from 11N26W to 10N32W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 09N to 16N and W of 26W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The basin is dominated by the westward extension of the
subtropical ridge, which is maintaining gentle to moderate return
flow across the basin. Subtle low-level convergence in the
northwest and north-central Gulf is producing some isolated
showers and tstorms. Seas are 1-3 ft across the Gulf, except 2-4
ft in the south-central Gulf and E Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, weak high pressure building across the basin
will maintain relatively quiet conditions through the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave
affecting the far western Caribbean.

Fresh to locally strong trades impacting the central Caribbean
were detected by the latest scatterometer pass, a result of the
pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the area
and lower pressure over South America. Seas of 8-10 ft prevail
from 11N to 16N between 73W and 81W, associated with the fresh to
locally strong winds. In the E and SW Caribbean, trades are
moderate and seas are 4-7 ft. In the NW Caribbean, trades are
moderate and seas are 3-6 ft.

For the forecast, the Bermuda-Azores High will maintain strong
to near gale trades over the south-central Caribbean through
tonight. The high will weaken Thu allowing for the tradewinds to
diminish to fresh to strong through Sat, followed by a resumption
of strong to near gale conditions Sun and Mon. Fresh to strong E
to SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras will continue through Thu
night before diminishing. Large NE to E swell is anticipated to
begin impacting the tropical Atlantic zones Thu night, continuing
through Sun, then diminishing again on Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

The tropical Atlantic is dominated by the subtropical ridge
centered north of the area. Latest ASCAT data indicated a
secondary 1023 mb high pressure center was located near 28N67W.
A weak surface trough is located from 27N61W to 24N64W. Gentle
to moderate anticyclonic flow is north of 20N, with moderate to
locally fresh trades south of 20N. Seas are 3-5 ft in the W
Atlantic west of 65W. Elsewhere in the discussion waters, seas
are 5-7 ft.

For the forecast, the high pressure ridge extending from 30N55W to
29N70W and to central Florida will gradually shift northward
during the next couple days. As the pressure gradient increases,
the E trades south of 25N should strengthen to fresh to strong from
tonight through the weekend. Large E swell will impact the
waters south of 22N from Thu night through Sat before
diminishing again Sun.

$$
ERA
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