[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Jul 14 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 39W, from 20N
southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is from 08N to 13N between
37W and 44W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 46W, from 20N
southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is from 08N to 13N between
44W and 56W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 60W/61W from 20N
southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. No significant
deep convective precipitation is apparent in the satellite
imagery.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 87W/88W, from 19N
southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation:
The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N, between 75W in Colombia,
and beyond Costa Rica into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is
from 11N to 14N between 80W and 85W, including in Nicaragua.
Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 11N
southward from 80W westward, and from Honduras northward from
85W westward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of SE
Senegal near 13N17W, to 10N23W, and 07N31W. The ITCZ continues
from 07N31W, to 06N38W and 06N52W. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 120 nm to the
north of the monsoon trough from 25W eastward. Isolated moderate
to locally strong is within 270 nm to the south of the monsoon
trough and the ITCZ from 38W eastward, and within 60 nm to the
north of the rest of the monsoon trough, and the ITCZ between
25W and 38W. Scattered moderate to strong is along the coast of
French Guiana from 04N to 05N between 51W and 52W. Isolated
moderate to locally strong is from the rest of the ITCZ
southward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is about 120 nm to
the north of the NW corner of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
between the upper level cyclonic circulation center and the
Yucatan Peninsula. Isolated moderate to locally strong covers
the rest of the Gulf of Mexico from 90W westward.

A surface ridge extends from the Bahamas, into the north central
Gulf of Mexico, toward the coast of Mexico near 23N98W.

The wind flow is gentle to moderate. The wave heights range from
1 foot to 3 feet in most areas. An exception is the range from 2
feet to 4 feet in the south central Gulf and in the southwestern
corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

Weak high pressure that is building in the Gulf of Mexico will
maintain relatively quiet conditions through the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 87W/88W, from 19N
southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation:
The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N, between 75W in Colombia,
and beyond Costa Rica into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is
from 11N to 14N between 80W and 85W, including in Nicaragua.
Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 11N
southward from 80W westward, and from Honduras northward from
85W westward.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow now covers the Caribbean Sea and
the Atlantic Ocean, from 12N northward between 65W and Florida.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within a
390 nm radius of the upper level cyclonic circulation center,
which is along 75W between the Bahamas and SE Cuba. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is between 80W and 87W in
the Gulf of Mexico, including in Florida.

Fresh to locally strong trade winds are impacting the central
Caribbean Sea. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 10 feet from
11N to 16N between 73W and 81W. The trade winds are moderate,
and the sea heights range from 4 feet to 7 feet, in the E and SW
Caribbean Sea. The trade winds are
moderate, and the sea heights range from 3 feet to 6 feet, in
the NW Caribbean Sea.

The surface pressure gradient, that is between the Azores high
pressure area the comparatively lower surface pressure that is
in the SW Caribbean Sea, is producing strong easterly winds and
sea heights that range from 6 feet to 8 feet, in the central
Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh easterly winds, and sea heights
that range from 4 feet to 6 feet, are in the eastern Caribbean
Sea. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds, and sea heights that
range from 2 feet to 4 feet, are in the NW Caribbean Sea.

The Bermuda-Azores High will maintain strong to near gale trade
winds in the south central Caribbean Sea through tonight. The
high will weaken Thu, allowing for the trade winds to diminish
to fresh to strong through Sat, followed by a resumption of
strong to near gale conditions on Sun and Mon. Fresh to strong E
to SE winds, that are in the Gulf of Honduras, will continue
through Thu night, before diminishing. Large NE to E swell is
anticipated to begin impacting the tropical Atlantic Ocean zones
on Thu night, continuing through Sun, then diminishing again on
Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge passes through 31N50W to 27N70W, across the
Bahamas, and into the central Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow is north of 20N. Moderate to locally fresh
trade winds are south of 20N. The sea heights range from 3 feet
to 5 feet from 65W westward. The sea heights range from 5 feet
to 7 feet in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow now covers the Caribbean Sea and
the Atlantic Ocean, from 12N northward between 65W and Florida.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within a
390 nm radius of the upper level cyclonic circulation center,
which is along 75W between the Bahamas and SE Cuba. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is between 80W and 87W in
the Gulf of Mexico, including in Florida.

A surface ridge, extending from 30N55W to 29N70W and to central
Florida, gradually will shift northward during the next couple
days. The E trades south of 25N should strengthen to fresh to
strong from tonight through the weekend, as the pressure
gradient increases. Large E swell will impact the waters south
of 22N from Thu night through Sat, before diminishing again on
Sun.

$$
MT/JA
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