[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131754
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Jul 13 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 37W from 19N
southward, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is from 11N to 13N between 32W and 35W.

An Atlantic tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles is along
57W, from 20N southward, moving west at 10-15 kt. No significant convection
is noted at this time.

A W Caribbean tropical wave is along 84W, from 18N southward,
moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection, likely
enhanced by the East Pacific Monsoon Trough, is noted in the SW
Caribbean from the coast of Panama north to 12N and west of 77W to
the coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Senegal
near 12N17W to 11N26W. The ITCZ continues from 11N26W to 09N34W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 11N between 18W and
23W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 11N to
13N within 50 nm of the coast of Senegal and Guinea-Bissau.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The Gulf of Mexico is dominated by the westward extension of the
subtropical ridge, which is maintaining gentle to moderate return
flow across the basin. Subtle low-level convergence in the
northwest and north-central Gulf is producing some isolated showers
and tstorms. Seas are 1-3 ft across the Gulf, except 2-4 ft in the
south-central Gulf and E Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, a surface trough along the N Gulf coast is
dissipating, while scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
may continue over the N Gulf through Thu. Weak high pressure
building over the area will maintain relatively quiet conditions
through the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to locally strong trades impacting the central Caribbean
were detected by the latest scatterometer pass, a result of the
pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the area
and lower pressure over South America. A satellite altimeter pass
from this morning indicated seas of 8-10 ft within an area from
11N to 16N between 73W and 81W, associated with the fresh to
locally strong winds. In the E and SW Caribbean, trades are
moderate and seas are 4-7 ft. In the NW Caribbean, trades are
moderate and seas are 3-6 ft.

For the forecast, the Bermuda-Azores High will maintain strong to
near gale trades over the south-central Caribbean through
tonight. The high will weaken Thu allowing for the tradewinds to
diminish to fresh to strong through the end of the week. Fresh to
strong east to southeast winds in the Gulf of Honduras will
continue through Thu night before diminishing. Large NE to E swell
is anticipated to begin impacting the tropical Atlantic zones Thu
night and continue through Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Aside from the tropical waves, the tropical Atlantic is dominated
by the subtropical ridge centered north of the area. ASCAT data
from around 1400 UTC indicated a secondary 1022 mb high pressure
center was located near 28N66W. A weak surface trough is located
from 27N61W to 22N65W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is
north of 20N, with moderate to locally fresh trades south of 20N.
Seas are 3-5 ft in the W Atlantic west of 65W. Elsewhere in the
discussion waters, seas are 5-7 ft.

For the forecast, the high pressure ridge extending from 30N55W
to 28N70W and to South Florida will gradually shift northward
during the next few days. As the pressure gradient increases, the
E trades south of 25N should strengthen to fresh from Wed night
through the end of the week. Large E swell will impact the waters
zones south of 22N from Thu night through Sat.

$$
Mahoney
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