[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131054
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Jul 13 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 34W from
02N to 19N, moving westward at about 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection within 180 nm east of the wave from 06N to 12N.

A surface trough extends from 11N39W to 07N43W to 05N48W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within
240 nm west of the trough from 06N to 10N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 55W south of
20N to inland Suriname. No significant deep convection is noted
with this wave.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 82W
south of 19N to across northern Panama and into the eastern
Pacific Ocean. It is moving westward near 15 kt. The monsoon
trough extends from northwestern Colombia near 10N75W to 11N81W
and westward to inland northern Costa Rica and into the eastern
Pacific Ocean. Numerous moderate to strong convection is along and
within 60 nm south of the trough between 78W-80W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm north of
the trough west of the tropical wave to 83W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N17W to 10N22W. The ITCZ continues from 10N22W to
08N33W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from
06N to 10N between 16W-22W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 180 nm south of the ITCZ between 25W-33W, and within
120 nm north of the ITCZ between 27W-33W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper-level cyclonic wind flow covers the Yucatan Peninsula, and
for a few hundred miles to the north of the Peninsula.

An-upper level inverted trough extends from the southern part of
the Yucatan Peninsula northwestward to the coast of Mexico near
23N98W. A surface trough extends from the Florida west-
southwestward along the northern Gulf coast. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are noted north of 29N between 87W-90W.

A surface ridge extends westward from the Atlantic into the
eastern Gulf. Mainly gentle winds are over the area. The wave
heights range from 1-2 ft in the Yucatan Channel and the Straits
of Florida to 3-4 feet in the NE Gulf of Mexico. Wave heights are
3 ft or less in the remainder of the area.

For the forecast, disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the
N Gulf of Mexico are associated with the aforementioned surface
trough that extends from the Florida panhandle west- southwestward
along the northern Gulf coast. The trough is forecast to drift
northward during the next few days and significant development is
unlikely due to the trough being near land. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are likely to continue in the area for at least the
next couple of days. Otherwise, weak high pressure over the area
will maintain relatively quiet conditions through the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Aside from convection associated with the tropical wave along
82W, scattered moderate convection is seen along the north coast
of Honduras extending north to 18N. Isolated showers are possible
over the eastern part of the sea east of about 69W.

Upper-level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea and the
Atlantic Ocean north of 12N between 60W-80W. High-level clouds
cover the area that is from 25N southward between 60W and 70W on
the eastern side of the upper level cyclonic wind flow.

The pressure gradient between the Azores high pressure area the
comparatively lower surface pressure in the southwestern Caribbean
Sea is producing strong to near gale trade winds and wave heights
that range from 8-10 ft in the central Caribbean Sea.

Moderate to fresh easterly winds and wave heights that range from
4 feet to 6 feet, are in the eastern Caribbean Sea. Gentle to
moderate E to SE winds, and wave heights of 2-4 ft in the
northwestern Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, the Bermuda-Azores High will maintain strong to
near gale trade winds over the south-central Caribbean through
tonight. The high will weaken Thu allowing for the trade winds to
diminish to fresh to strong through the end of the week. Fresh to
strong east to southeast winds in the Gulf of Honduras will
continue through Thu night before diminishing. Large NE to E
swell is anticipated to begin impacting the tropical Atlantic
zones Thu night and continue through early Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A high pressure ridge extends from 31N50W to 27N70W, across the
Bahamas, and to the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The winds are
moderate to the north of the ridge. Gentle to moderate winds are
south of the ridge as noted in overnight ASCAT data passes.
Easterly winds are moderate to fresh south of 20N. The winds are
moderate to fresh in the central Atlantic Ocean. N to NE winds are
moderate in the eastern Atlantic Ocean. Wave heights in the range
of 7-9 ft are mixed with other wave heights that range from 4-6
ft from the Cabo Verde Islands northward from 30W eastward. The
wave heights range from 7-8 ft south of the Cabo Verde Islands and
east of 30W. The wave heights range from 4-6 ft north of 20N and
between 30W-50W, from 5-7 ft south of 20N and west of 30W, and
3-5 feet over the remainder of the area.

Upper-level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea and the
Atlantic Ocean from 12N northward between 60W and 80W. High-
level clouds are noted south of 25N between 60W-70W. They are
on the eastern side of the upper-level cyclonic wind flow.

For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure ridge will
gradually shift northward during the next few days. As the
pressure gradient increases, the trade winds south of 25N should
strengthen to fresh from Wed night through the end of the week.
Large E swell will impact the waters zones south of 22N from Thu
night through Sat.

$$
Aguirre
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net