[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101737
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Jul 10 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 30W
from 17N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. The convective
pattern near the tropical wave indicates that convection is most
closely associated with the Monsoon Trough and ITCZ, and will be
described in that section of the discussion.

An Atlantic tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles
extends its axis along 61W from 19N southward, moving W around
15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 12N
between 58W and 64W, including inland over N Guyana and far NE
Venezuela. Visible satellite indicates that this tropical wave
is leading a large area of Saharan Dust; this is also apparent
in the 1200 UTC Upper Air Sounding from Barbados that showed an
increase in mid-level dryness consistent with the Saharan Air
Layer.

A Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 79W, from 20N
southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is from the coast of Panama north to 12N and west of
the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to a tropical wave axis near 10N30W. The ITCZ begins just
west of the tropical waves axis near 10N32W to 07N45W to 09N56W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 10N between 21W and
33W and from 05N to 09N between 44W and 50W. Additional
scattered showers are noted along remaining sections of the
Monsoon Trough and ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Scattered moderate convection is noted in the north-central Gulf
offshore SE Louisiana, from 26N to the coast between 89W and
91W. The extension of the subtropical ridge continues to
dominate the Gulf waters, supplying light to gentle return flow.
Seas are 1-3 ft across the basin. A surface trough evident in
surface observations and the latest scatterometer pass is
producing scattered showers in the far NE Gulf. A weak surface
trough is analyzed in the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the surface ridging will maintain light to
gentle return flow E of 90W through the forecast period. Gentle
to moderate winds W of 90W will increase to moderate to fresh
speeds by early Mon and continue through Thu night as a broad
area of low pressure develops over Texas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between the Bermuda-Azores High located
well northeast of the area and the Colombian Low supports fresh
to strong trades across much of the south-central Caribbean,
becoming moderate in the north-central Caribbean. The latest
scatterometer pass shows the strongest winds are from 12N to 14N
between 73W and 77W. As a result of these winds, seas in the
central Caribbean are 7-10 ft. In the E and SW Caribbean, trades
are mainly moderate and seas are 5-7 ft. In the NW Caribbean,
trades are gentle to moderate with 3-5 ft seas.

For the forecast, the strong high pressure centered over the
north-central Atlantic extending a ridge to the northern
Caribbean will maintain moderate to fresh trade winds across the
E basin, and fresh to strong winds in the central and portions
of the SW basin through Thu night. These winds will be modulated
by a pair of tropical waves moving across the area. Gentle to
moderate winds in the NW Caribbean will increase to moderate to
fresh on Tue, and reach strong speeds in the Gulf of Honduras on
Tue night, continuing through Thu night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The subtropical Bermuda-Azores High continues to dominate the
Atlantic forecast waters. Scatterometer data from this morning
depicted gentle to moderate trades across the discussion waters
north of 20N, turning to southerly west of 70W. South of 20N,
trades are moderate to locally fresh. Seas are 3-6 ft north of
20N and west of 60W. Elsewhere, seas are 6-8 ft in open waters.
Recent satellite imagery indicates a broad area of Saharan Dust
in the lee of the tropical wave along 61W, mainly south of 20N.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores high will
continue to extend a ridge SW across the region, which will
maintain moderate to fresh E to SE winds mainly S of 25N through
the forecast period. Moderate to fresh SW winds N of 29N
associated with the passage of a frontal boundary N of the area
will diminish to moderate Tue morning and then prevail through
Thu night.

$$
Mahoney
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net