[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Jul 10 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 28W from
17N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted where the wave meets the monsoon trough from
08N-10N.

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 58W from 19N
southward, moving W around 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 08N-11N between 54W-63W.

A Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 77W, moving W at
10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the southern
end of the wave axis mainly S of 11N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 11N15W
to 10N27W. The ITCZ continues from 10N28W to 09N56W. Aside from
the convection related to the tropical waves described above,
scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm on either side
of the boundaries between 13W-46W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge continues to dominate the Gulf waters supporting
mainly light and gentle winds over the eastern Gulf and gentle to
moderate E to SE winds over the western Gulf. Seas are generally 3
ft or less. A surface trough is analyzed W of the Yucatan
peninsula with no significant convection at the moment.

For the forecast, surface ridging will prevail across the region
through the forecast period supporting light to gentle return
flow E of 90W and gentle to moderate winds W of 90W. An increase
in wind speeds is expected through midweek as a low pressure
develops over the Texas coast.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave
moving across the basin.

The pressure gradient between the Bermuda-Azores High located
well northeast of the area and the Colombian Low supports fresh to
strong NE to E trades across much of the central Caribbean, with
the strongest winds of 25-30 kt in the Gulf of Venezuela and near
the coast of Colombia. Weaker winds are noted over the eastern
Caribbean and NW Caribbean. Seas are 8-9 ft over the south-
central Caribbean, 5-7 ft in the eastern Caribbean and 3-5 ft in
the NW Caribbean.

An upper-level low now spinning over western Cuba continues to
support the development of showers and thunderstorms across parts
of the island. This feature will continue to move westward over
Cuba today enhancing the convective activity, particularly during
the afternoon and evening hours. This system will also continue
to aid in the development of showers and thunderstorms over South
Florida.

For the forecast, high pressure N of the area will continue to support
moderate to fresh trade winds across the E basin, and fresh to
strong winds in the central and portions of the basin through mid-
week. These winds will also be enhanced by a pair of tropical
waves moving across the area. Gentle to moderate winds in the NW
Caribbean will increase to moderate to fresh on Tue, and reach
strong speeds in the Gulf of Honduras on Wed night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

The subtropical Bermuda-Azores High continues to dominate the
Atlantic forecast waters. The pressure gradient between the High
and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is forcing generally
moderate to fresh NE to E trades across the tropical North Atlantic.
Seas are 6-8 ft south of 25N and 4-6 ft north of 25N. The Saharan
Air Layer from CIMSS indicates a large area of African dust
covering the Atlantic waters E of 60W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores High will continue
to extend a ridge SW across the region, which will maintain moderate
to fresh E to SE winds mainly S of 25N through the forecast period.
Moderate to locally fresh SW winds will prevail through Tue
morning N of 29N as a frontal boundary moves across the waters N
of the region. This will slightly weaken the ridge tonight through
Mon night.

$$
ERA
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