[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100510
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Jul 10 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 27W from
17N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted where the wave meets the monsoon trough from
08N-10N between 23W-30W.

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 57W from 18N
southward, moving W around 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is seen from 07N-10N between 50W-61W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 76W/77W, and extends from
eastern Cuba to northern Colombia. A cluster of moderate to strong
convection is near the southern end of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 11N15W
to 10N28W. The ITCZ continues from 10N28W to 06N45W to 08N45W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within about
120 nm south of both the monsoon trough and ITCZ. The eastern
North Pacific's monsoon trough extends across Costa Rica and
Panama to a 1009 mb Colombian Low at 10N75W. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is occurring south of 11N W of 78W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak ridge continues to dominate the Gulf waters supporting
mainly light and gentle winds over the eastern Gulf and gentle to
moderate E to SE winds over the western Gulf. Seas are generally
3 ft or less. A surface trough is just W of the Yucatan peninsula.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are near the trough axis over
the eastern Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, weak surface ridging extending across the Gulf
will maintain gentle to moderate return flow E of 90W through the
forecast period. Gentle to moderate winds W of 90W will increase
to moderate to fresh speeds early on Mon and continue through Wed
night as a broad area of low pressure develops over Texas and
extends along eastern Mexico, increasing the pressure gradient in
the region.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between the Bermuda-Azores High located
well northeast of the area and the Colombian Low supports fresh to
strong NE to E trades across much of the central Caribbean, with
the strongest winds of 25-30 kt in the Gulf of Venezuela and near
the coast of Colombia. Weaker winds are noted over the eastern
Caribbean and NW Caribbean. Seas are 8-10 ft over the south-
central Caribbean, 5-7 ft in the eastern Caribbean and 3-5 ft in
the NW Caribbean.

An upper-level low now spinning over central Cuba continues to
support the development of showers and thunderstorms across parts
of the island. This feature will continue to move westward over
Cuba this Sunday enhancing the convective activity, particularly
during the afternoon and evening hours. This system will also
continue to aid in the development of showers and thunderstorms
over South Florida.

For the forecast, high pressure N of the Caribbean Sea will maintain
moderate to fresh trade winds across the E basin and fresh to strong
winds in the central and portions of the SW Caribbean through Wed
night as two tropical waves move through the region. Gentle to moderate
winds in the NW Caribbean will increase to moderate to fresh on Tue,
and reach strong speeds in the Gulf of Honduras Wed evening.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The subtropical Bermuda-Azores High continues to dominate the
Atlantic forecast waters. The pressure gradient between the High
and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is forcing generally
moderate to fresh NE to E trades across the tropical North Atlantic.
Seas are 6-8 ft south of 25N and 4-6 ft north of 25N. No deep
convection is occurring away from the tropical waves and ITCZ/monsoon
trough mentioned earlier. The Saharan Air Layer from CIMSS indicates
a large area of African dust covering the Atlantic waters E of 60W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores High will continue
to extend a ridge SW across the region, which will maintain moderate
to fresh E to SE winds mainly S of 25N through the forecast period.
Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds will develop tonight N of
29N and continue through Tue morning as a frontal boundary moves
across the waters N of the region. This will slightly weaken the
ridge Sun night through Mon night.

$$
GR
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