[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102306
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Jul 11 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 32W
from 20N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 07N-10N between 31W-36W.

A eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 64W
from 20N southward, moving W around 15 to 20 kt. No significant
deep convection is present with this tropical wave.

A western Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 80W,
from 20N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is from 16N southward and west of
79W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to a tropical wave axis near 10N31W. The ITCZ begins just
west of the tropical waves axis near 09N34W to 05N53W at the
coast of French Guiana. In addition to convection associated with
the Atlantic tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is
noted from 05N-10N between 18W-24W and from 06N-09N between
48W-52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is located from the Florida panhandle near
30N85W to 26N90W. Scattered moderate convection is noted north of
26N between 86W-92W. Winds across the Gulf are moderate or weaker
and seas are 1-3 ft.

For the forecast, the surface ridging extending across the basin
will maintain light to gentle return flow E of 90W through the
forecast period, except over the far NE basin where a developing
surface trough will support moderate to fresh SW winds. Gentle to
moderate winds W of 90W will increase to moderate to fresh
speeds by early Mon and continue through Thu night as a broad
area of low pressure develops over Texas and NE Mexico. Light to
gentle variable winds are expected basin-wide on Fri, except over
the Bay of Campeche where winds will be enhanced by a thermal
trough coming off the Yucatan peninsula during the night hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between the Bermuda-Azores High located
well northeast of the area and a 1010 mb Colombian Low at 10N75W
supports fresh to strong NE to E trades across much of the
central and SE Caribbean. Elsewhere the E trades are moderate or
weaker. Seas are 8-10 ft in the central Caribbean, 5-7 ft in the
eastern Caribbean, and 3-5 ft in the western Caribbean. Aside
from deep convection associated with the western tropical wave,
no additional deep convection is noted.

For the forecast, strong high pressure centered over the north-
central Atlantic extending a ridge to the northern Caribbean will
maintain moderate to fresh trade winds across the E basin, and
fresh to strong winds in the central and portions of the SW basin
through Fri night. These winds will be modulated by a pair of
tropical waves moving across the area. Gentle to moderate winds
in the NW Caribbean will increase to moderate to fresh on Tue,
and reach strong speeds in the Gulf of Honduras on Tue night,
continuing through Fri night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The subtropical Bermuda-Azores High continues to dominate the
Atlantic forecast waters with ridging extending across our waters
from 31N50W to 27N80W. Gentle to fresh NE to E trades are
occurring between the ridge and the ITCZ. Seas are 6-8 ft south
of 22N and 4-5 ft north of 22N. Geocolor satellite imagery
distinctly shows a strong Saharan Air Layer with substantial
amount of dust south of 23N and east of 62W across most of the
tropical North Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Azores high will continue to
extend a ridge SW across the region, which will maintain moderate
to fresh E to SE winds mainly S of 25N through the forecast
period. Moderate to fresh SW winds N of 29N associated with the
passage of a frontal boundary N of the area will diminish to
moderate Tue morning. Afterward, gentle to moderate SW winds will
prevail through Fri night.

$$
Landsea
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