[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080536
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Jul 8 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is added to the 0000 UTC analysis/surface map
along 17W from 07N to 18N based on the Tropical Wave Diagnostic
and the Hovmoller Diagram that shows the westward propagation of
the wave. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 10N
between 14W and 19W. Similar convective activity is behind the
wave axis over parts Guinea Bissau and southern Senegal.

A tropical wave extends from 07N to 20N with axis along 42W,
moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen where
the wave meets the ITCZ, particularly from 08N to 10N between 42W
and 45W. African dust surrounds most of the wave axis.

A tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles with axis along
60W from 07N to 20N, moving W around 15 kt. Dry Saharan air is
limited convection associated with the wave.

A tropical wave is over the Caribbean Sea and extends from western
Cuba to near western Panama moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave appears
to enhance scattered showers and thunderstorms between the Cayman
Islands and the southern coast of Cuba.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the W coast of Africa near 14N16W
to 09N27W. The ITCZ begins near 09N27W to 10N40W then resumes
near 09N44W to 08N58W. Aside from the convection related to the
tropical waves, no significant convective activity is noted.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak ridge dominates the Gulf waters supporting light and gentle
winds over the eastern Gulf, except in the Straits of Florida
where gentle to moderate easterly winds prevail. Similar wind
speeds are over the western Gulf in a SE wind flow. Seas are 1 to
3 ft, except near 4 ft in the Bay of Campeche. A surface trough
is analyzed over the eastern Gulf and runs from 28N85W to 23N86W.
Scattered showers are on either side of the trough axis. Another
surface trough has developed near the NW Yucatan peninsula and is
drifting westward across the SW Gulf. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are near the trough axis. Campeche reported rain and
gusty winds in association with this convective activity.

For the forecast, a ridge across the northern Gulf will reorganize
along 28N Fri through Sat, then shift south to the central Gulf
through early next week. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas
will prevail through this time. The surface trough extending
along 85W/86W will move slowly westward and weaken through
tonight, accompanied by scattered showers. NE to E winds will
pulse to fresh each evening and night along the NW Yucatan
peninsula through Fri and to moderate Sat through Mon. Fresh SW
winds will develop in the eastern Bay of Campeche and south-
central Gulf late Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Tropical Waves section above for details on the
wave moving across the western Caribbean.

An upper-level low spinning over Hispaniola is now supporting
scattered and tstms across the island, including parts of the
Windward Passage. This low is forecast to move toward eastern
Cuba today and Sat. As a result, the shower and thunderstorm
activity is expected to diminish over Hispaniola today, but will
likely increase over eastern Cuba. Numerous showers and
thunderstorms are observed over northern Colombia. A diffluent
pattern aloft is helping to induce this convection.

Recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong trades between
Hispaniola and western Venezuela, with strong to gale force winds
in the Gulf of Venezuela. Gentle to moderate winds are seen over
the western Caribbean.

For the forecast, the tropical wave that extends from western
Cuba to western Panama will move across the rest of the western
Caribbean through Fri night. Winds behind the wave are fresh to
strong over the south-central Caribbean as high pressure builds
north of the area in the wake of the wave. Winds and seas will
diminish significantly across the basin this weekend, then
increase from Mon afternoon through Tue night as the next tropical
wave moves across the eastern and central Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are moving westward between the W coast of
Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Refer to the Tropical Waves section
above for more details.

The Bermuda-Azores High dominates the Atlantic forecast waters and
has a center of 1040 mb NE of the Azores. Based on scatterometer
data, a belt of moderate to fresh winds is noted around the
southern periphery of this high, affecting mainly the waters S of
25N. Seas are 6-8 ft within these winds. The associated ridge
extends toward the Bahamas and Florida into the eastern Gulf of
Mexico.

For the forecast west of 55W, a high pressure ridge along 27N
extending westward to northern Florida will persist through Fri
night resulting in moderate to fresh trade winds south of 25N.
Winds will pulse to strong off the northern coast of Hispaniola
each evening and night through Sat. A cold front will move slowly
SE off the SE U.S. coast over the weekend and produce fresh SW
winds across the far NW forecast waters early Sat. These winds
will shift eastward to between 68W and 78W Sat night through Sun
night before shifting NE of the area Mon as high pressure once
again builds westward along 29N through Tue night.

$$
GR
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