[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081026
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Jul 8 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Latest scatterometer data depicted gale force winds occurring
over the Gulf of Venezuela. These conditions are expected to
continue through this afternoon. Please refer to the latest NWS
High Seas Forecast product issued by the National Hurricane Center
at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for
further details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends it axis along 18W from 07N to 18N.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 14W
and 19W. Similar convective activity is behind the wave axis over
parts Guinea Bissau and southern Senegal.

A tropical wave extends from 07N to 20N with axis along 43W,
moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
where the wave meets the ITCZ, particularly from 09N to 11N
between 40W and 45W. African dust surrounds most of the wave
axis.

A tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles with axis along
62W from 07N to 20N, moving W around 15 kt. Dry Saharan air is
limited convection associated with the wave.

A tropical wave is over the Caribbean Sea and extends from western
Cuba to near western Panama moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave appears
to enhance scattered showers and thunderstorms between the Cayman
Islands and the southern coast of Cuba.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the W coast of Africa near 13N17W
to 10N27W. The ITCZ begins near 10N27W to 10N41W, then resumes W
of a tropical wave near 09N45W to 10N60W. Aside from the convection
related to the tropical waves, no significant convective activity
is noted.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak ridge dominates the Gulf waters supporting light and gentle
winds over the eastern Gulf, except in the Straits of Florida
where gentle to moderate easterly winds prevail. Similar wind
speeds are over the western Gulf in a SE wind flow. Seas are 1 to
3 ft, except near 4 ft in the Bay of Campeche. A surface trough
is analyzed near the Yucatan peninsula and is drifting westward
across the SW Gulf. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are near
the trough axis. Campeche reported rain and gusty winds in
association with this convective activity.

For the forecast, high pressure ridge across the northern Gulf will
reorganize along 28N through Sat, then shift south to the central
Gulf through early next week. Gentle to moderate winds and slight
seas will prevail through this time. NE to E winds will pulse to
fresh each evening and night along the NW Yucatan peninsula
through Fri and to moderate Sat through Mon. Fresh SW winds will
develop in the eastern Bay of Campeche and south-central Gulf late
Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning
currently in effect for the Gulf of Venezuela.

Please read the Tropical Waves section above for details on the
wave moving across the western Caribbean.

An upper-level low spinning over Hispaniola. This low is forecast
to move toward eastern Cuba today and Sat. As a result, shower
and thunderstorm activity is expected to increase over eastern
Cuba. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted over northern
Colombia. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce this
convection.

Recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong trades between
Hispaniola and western Venezuela, and gentle to moderate winds
are noted over the western Caribbean.

For the forecast, gale force winds will prevail across the Gulf
of Venezuela through this afternoon due to a tight pressure
gradient in the area. The tropical wave that extends from western
Cuba to western Panama will move across the rest of the western
Caribbean through tonight. Fresh winds prevail behind the wave
over the central Caribbean as high pressure builds north of the
area in the wake of the wave. Winds and seas will diminish
significantly across the basin this weekend, then increase from
Mon afternoon through Tue night as the next tropical wave moves
across the eastern and central Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are moving westward between the W coast of
Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Refer to the Tropical Waves section
above for more details.

The Bermuda-Azores High dominates the Atlantic forecast waters and
has a center of 1039 mb NE of the Azores. Based on scatterometer
data, a belt of moderate to fresh winds is noted around the
southern periphery of this high, affecting mainly the waters S of
25N. Seas are 6-8 ft within these winds. The associated ridge
extends toward the Bahamas and Florida into the eastern Gulf of
Mexico.

For the forecast west of 55W, the high pressure ridge along 28N
extending westward to northern Florida will persist through
tonight resulting in moderate to fresh trade winds S of 25N. Winds
will pulse to strong off the northern coast of Hispaniola this
evening and night through Sat. A cold front will move slowly SE
off the SE U.S. coast over the weekend and produce fresh SW winds
across the far NW forecast waters by early Sat. High pressure will
build in the wake of the front by Sun.

$$
ERA
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