[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080004
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Jul 7 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 07N to 20N with axis near 41W, moving
W around 15 kt. Strong wind shear and dry air from a Saharan Air
Layer outbreak are heavily affecting the environment of this wave,
which lacks convection at the moment.

A tropical wave extends from 07N to 20N with axis near 57W, moving
W around 15 kt. Dry Saharan air and strong wind shear continue to
hinder any significant convection near the wave.

A tropical wave is S of 20N with axis near 80W, moving W at 10-15
kt. Strong shear is affecting the southern half environment of the
wave, which lacks significant convection. N of 15N, deep layer
moisture and a low shear environment is supporting scattered
showers and tstms between 74W and 81W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 19N16W to 12N21W to 10N27W. The
ITCZ begins near 10N27W to 10N40W then resumes near 08N42W to
05N52W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 11N between
12W and 20W, and from 05N to 10N between 41W and 47W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure gradient across the Gulf is supporting light to
gentle variable winds and seas less than 3 ft almost basin-wide.
Surface ridging across the basin, anchored by a 1019 mb high off
the Florida Panhandle is supporting moderate return flow W of 95W.
The other region with higher winds is the offshore waters to the
west of the Yucatan peninula where a thermal trough supports
moderate to fresh NE winds. Otherwise, scattered showers
associated with a surface trough continue to affect the SE Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure ridge across the northern Gulf
will reorganize along 28N Fri through Sat, then shift south to the
central Gulf through early next week. Gentle to moderate winds
and slight seas will prevail through this time. A surface trough
extending from northern Florida, south-southwestward to 27N85W and
to 23N86W will move slowly westward and weaken through tonight,
accompanied by scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. NE to
E winds will pulse to fresh each evening and night along the NW
Yucatan peninsula through Fri and to moderate Sat through Mon.
Winds will become fresh southeasterly in the eastern Bay of
Campeche and south-central Gulf late Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Tropical Waves section above for details on the
wave extending across the SW Caribbean.

Strong wind shear across the eastern half of the basin and
portions of the SW Caribbean is maintaining fair weather
conditions. Over the north-central Caribbean a middle level trough
and an upper level low are supporting scattered showers and tstms
across the Hispaniola and the Mona Passage while the northern
portion of a tropical wave enhance similar shower activity across
Jamaica adjacent waters and the lee side of Cuba. In terms of
winds, a strong ridge N of the area tightens the pressure gradient
against the tropical wave in the SW Caribbean and continue to
support fresh to strong winds E of 80W, being the strongest winds
in the south-central basin.

For the forecast, a tropical wave that extends from eastern Cuba
southwestward to 15N80W and to western Panama will move across the
rest of the western Caribbean through Fri night. Winds behind the
wave have increased to fresh to strong over the south-central
Caribbean as high pressure builds north of the area in the wake of
this tropical wave. Winds and seas will diminish significantly
across the basin Sat night through Sun night, then increase from
Mon afternoon through Tue night as another tropical wave moves
across the eastern and central Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

The main feature in the subtropical Atlantic is a surface ridge
that extends from a 1039 mb high centered near the Azores islands.
This is supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds S of 25N to the
W of 55W and fresh to strong NE winds with seas to 9 ft E of 35W
all the way to the coast of Africa.

For the forecast west of 55W, the high pressure ridge along 29N
extending westward to northern Florida will persist through Fri
night resulting in moderate to fresh trade winds south of 25N.
Winds will pulse to strong off the northern coast of Hispaniola
each evening and night through Sat. A cold front will move slowly
SE off the SE U.S. coast over the weekend and produce fresh SW
winds across the far NW forecast waters early Sat. These fresh SW
winds will shift eastward to between 68W and 78W Sat night through
Sun night before shifting NE of the area Mon and Mon night as
high pressure once again builds westward along 29N through Tue
night.

$$
Ramos
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net