[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062207
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Jul 7 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 34W, south of 20N
and moving W around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection has
developed in association with this wave from 05N to 10N between
30W and 40W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is located along 51W, S of 22N,
moving W around 15 kt. No significant convection is associated
with this wave.

A Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 74W, from the Turks
and Caicos to the Venezuela-Colombia border, moving W around 10
kt. No significant convection is occurring with this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough extends from Mauritania near 17N17W to 12N21W.
The ITCZ stretches from 12N21W to 10N31W, from 09N33W to 08N48W,
and from 08N50W to 08N59W near the coast of Guyana. Convection
along these features is primarily associated with a tropical wave
described in the section above.

The eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough reaches
the SW Caribbean through the coast of Panama to the coast of
Colombia. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 100 nm of
the coasts of SE Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and eastern Panama.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough stretches from SW Florida to the western tip of
Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm of the
the trough axis. Elsewhere, fairly tranquil conditions prevail. A
weak high pressure regime maintains light to locally moderate
anticyclonic winds and seas of 1-3 ft. A diurnal trough over the
Yucatan Peninsula is leading to moderate NE winds over waters just
W of the Peninsula.

For the forecast, a surface ridge over the northern Gulf will shift
southward to along 28N tonight through Sat. Gentle to moderate
winds and slight seas will prevail through this time. A low-level
trough extending from near Naples, Florida to 23N84W will slowly
move westward through Thu preceded by active weather. NE to E
winds will pulse to fresh each evening and night along the NW
Yucatan peninsula through Fri and to moderate Sat through Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ Section above for details on
convection in the SW Caribbean.

The rest of the Caribbean is experiencing fairly tranquil weather
conditions. Fresh to locally strong trades are present in the
south-central Caribbean, with the strongest winds near the
Colombian coast. Seas are 6-8 ft in the described waters.
Moderate to occasionally fresh trades are evident in the rest of
the central and eastern Caribbean, with seas of 3-6 ft. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and seas of 2-5 ft prevail.

For the forecast, a tropical wave along 74W will move across the
central Caribbean tonight, then across the western Caribbean Thu
night through Fri night. Winds and seas will increase to fresh to
strong early Thu through Sat over the south-central Caribbean as
high pressure builds north of the area in the wake of this
tropical wave. Winds and seas will diminish across the basin Sun
and Sun night, then increase some Mon and Mon night as another
tropical wave moves across the eastern and central Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A TUTT located north of the Leeward Islands is producing
scattered scattered moderate convection from 19N to 24N between
59W and 63W. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a
strong subtropical ridge centered east of Bermuda and a large
area of Saharan dust, suppressing the development of convection. W
of 55W, mainly moderate E to SE winds and seas of 3-6 ft are
prevalent. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds S of 23N and
between 35W and 60W. Seas in the area described are 5 to 7 ft.
A region of mainly strong winds is found off the coasts of
Western Sahara, Morocco, and the Canary Islands with seas of 6 to
9 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-5 ft
prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a ridge extending from the central
Atlantic to northern Florida along 30N will persist through the
rest of the week to produce moderate to fresh trade winds south of
25N. Winds will pulse to strong off the northern coast of
Hispaniola each evening and night through Sat. A cold front will
approach the SE U.S. coast over the weekend and produce fresh SW
winds across the far NW waters Sat, shifting eastward to between
65W and 76W on Sun and to between 63W and 74W Mon and Mon night.

$$
Konarik
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