[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070454
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Jul 7 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 36W and S of 20N,
moving W around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection has
developed in association with this wave from 08N to 12N between
32W and 42W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 52W and S of
20N, moving W around 15 kt. No significant convection is
associated with this wave.

A Caribbean tropical wave has its axis extending from 22N71W to
10N78W, moving W around 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted
across the  northern portion of the wave affecting the Windward
Passage.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough extends from Mauritania near 16N17W to 11N25W.
The ITCZ stretches from 11N25W to 10N33W, then resumes W of a
tropical wave from 08N38W to 05N48W. Convection along these
features is primarily associated with a tropical wave described
in the section above.

The eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough reaches
the SW Caribbean through the coast of Panama to the coast of
Colombia. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 100 nm of
the coasts of SE Nicaragua and Costa Rica.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough stretches from W Florida near 28N83W to 25N85W.
Elsewhere, fairly tranquil conditions prevail. A 1016 mb high
pressure centered near 28N92W maintains light to locally
moderate anticyclonic winds and seas of 1-3 ft. A thermal trough
over the Yucatan Peninsula is leading to moderate NE winds over
waters just W of the Peninsula.

For the forecast, surface ridge over the northern Gulf will shift
southward to along 28N through Sat. Gentle to moderate
winds and slight seas will prevail through this time. NE to E
winds  will pulse to fresh each evening and night along the NW
Yucatan peninsula through Fri and to moderate Sat through Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ Section above for details on
convection in the SW Caribbean. Refer to the Tropical Waves
section above for details on the wave extending across the
central  Caribbean.

The remainder of the basin is experiencing fairly tranquil
weather conditions. Fresh to locally strong trades are present
in the south-central Caribbean, with the strongest winds near
the Colombian coast. Seas are 6-8 ft prevail in the described
waters. Moderate to occasionally fresh trades are evident in the
rest of the central and eastern Caribbean, with seas of 3-6 ft.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 2-5 ft prevail.

For the forecast, the tropical wave will move across the western
Caribbean through Fri night. Winds and seas will increase to
fresh to strong early Thu through Sat over the south-central
Caribbean as high pressure builds north of the area in the wake
of this tropical wave. Winds and seas will diminish across the
basin Sun and Sun night, then increase some Mon and Mon night as
another tropical wave moves across the eastern and central
Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

A TUTT located east of the Bahamas is producing scattered
showers  S of 24N and W of 62W. The rest of the tropical
Atlantic is dominated by a strong subtropical ridge centered
east of Bermuda and a large area of Saharan dust, suppressing
the development of significant convection. W of 55W, mainly
moderate E to SE winds and seas of 3-6 ft are prevalent. Fresh
to locally strong easterly winds S of 23N and between 35W and
60W. Seas in the area described are 5 to 7 ft. A region of
mainly strong winds is found off the coasts of Western Sahara,
Morocco, and the Canary Islands with seas of 6 to 9 ft.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-5 ft prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the ridge will persist through the
rest of the week to produce moderate to fresh trade winds S of
25N. Winds will pulse to strong off the northern coast of
Hispaniola each night through Sat. A cold front will approach
the SE U.S. coast over the weekend and produce fresh SW winds
across the far NW waters Sat, shifting eastward to between 65W
and 76W on Sun and to between 63W and 74W Mon and Mon night.

$$
ERA
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