[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061753
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Jul 6 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1735 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 32W, south of 20N and
moving W around 15 kt. The wave is surrounded by a dry airmass
associated with Saharan dust. No significant deep convection is
observed near the wave.

A tropical wave has been introduced in the central Atlantic based
on wave diagnostic and Hovmoller diagram guidance. The wave is
located along 49W, south of 22N and moving W around 15-20 kt. No
significant deep convection is associated with this feature.

A Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 72W, south of 23N,
extending from the Turks and Caicos, across Hispaniola and W
Venezuela and moving W around 10-15 kt. No significant deep
convection is occurring in association with this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough extends from Mauritania near 16N17W to 13N21W.
The ITCZ stretches from 13N21W to 10N31W, and from 09N33W to
08N48W and from 08N50W to 08N59W near the coast of Guyana.
Scattered moderate convection is present from 06N to 12N and
between 34W and 45W. The eastern extension of the East Pacific
monsoon trough reaches the SW Caribbean through the coast of
Panama to 12N75W near offshore Colombia. A line of showers and
isolated thunderstorms is affecting the water within 100 nm of the
coasts of SE Nicaragua to E Panama.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is located off the western coast of Florida,
along 84W and from 24N to 28N. A few showers are found near the
trough's axis. Isolated showers also dot the waters of the
northern Gulf coast. Elsewhere, fairly tranquil conditions
prevail. A weak high pressure regime maintains light to locally
moderate anticyclonic winds and seas of 1-3 ft.

For the forecast, a surface ridge extending across the northern
Gulf will drift northward to along by late this afternoon, then
sink southward to along 28N tonight through Sat. Gentle to
moderate winds and slight seas will prevail through this time. A
low-level trough over the eastern Gulf along 84W from 23N to 28N
will slowly move westward, with active weather expected ahead of
it. NE to E winds will pulse to fresh each evening and night along
the NW Yucatan peninsula through Fri and to moderate Sat and Sun.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for the convection in
the SW Caribbean.

Divergence aloft associated with a broad tropical upper-
tropospheric trough (TUTT) is causing some isolated showers that
are affecting the Lesser Antilles and surrounding waters. The rest
of the Caribbean enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions. A
recent scatterometer satellite pass indicates that fresh to
locally strong trades are present in the south-central Caribbean,
with the strongest winds near the Colombian coast. Seas are 6-9 ft
in the described waters. Moderate to occasionally fresh trades
are evident in the rest of the central and eastern Caribbean, with
seas of 3-6 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas of
2-5 ft prevail.

For the forecast, marine conditions will continue to improve
across the western and central Caribbean today behind the exiting
tropical wave along 92W. A tropical wave along 70W will move
across the central Caribbean today and tonight, then across the
western Caribbean Thu night through Fri night. Winds and seas will
increase to fresh to strong early Thu through Sat over the south-
central Caribbean as high pressure builds north of the area in
the wake of this tropical wave. Winds and seas will diminish
across the basin Sun through Sun night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The aforementioned TUTT located north of the Leeward Islands is
producing scattered showers from 19N to 24N and between 59W and
63W. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a strong
subtropical ridge positioned in the far NE Atlantic near 49N18W
and a large area of Saharan dust, suppressing the development of
convection. W of 55W, moderate to fresh anticyclonic winds and
seas of 3-6 ft are prevalent. Recent satellite-derived wind data
show fresh to locally strong easterly winds S of 24N and between
30W and 55W. Seas in the area described are 6-8 ft. Another region
of fresh to strong winds is found off the coasts of Western
Sahara, Morocco and the Canary Islands with seas of 5-8 ft.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 2-5 ft prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a ridge extending from the central
Atlantic to northern Florida along 30N will persist through the
rest of the week to produce moderate to fresh trade winds south of
25N. Winds will pulse to strong off the northern coast of
Hispaniola each evening and night through the period. A cold front
will approach the SE U.S. coast over the weekend and produce
fresh SW winds across the far NW waters Sat shifting eastward to
between 65W and 75W on Sun.

$$
Colon-Burgos/Delgado
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