[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061008
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Jul 6 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The eastern Atlantic tropical wave is located along 30W from 17N
southward, and moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate
convection is noted well behind the from from 08N to 12N between
23W and 25W, while scattered moderate convection is observed near
the ITCZ from 05.5N-08N between 25W and 32W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 70W from 21N southward to
Venezuela, moving W around 15 kt. No significant deep convection
is occurring over water in association with this wave, while
scattered moderate to strong convection is noted inland over
Venezuela behind the wave south of 09.5N.

A tropical wave has crossed Central America and southeast Mexico
in the past 24 hours and is along 93W. The northern portion of the
wave has separated and is in phase with the nocturnal Yucatan
trough that is shifting westward across the Bay of Campeche.
Isolated moderate convection is noted across the central Bay of
Campeche.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough extends from Senegal near 15.5N16W to 10N24W.
The ITCZ extends from 10N24W to French Guiana near 0.45N52W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection extends from 06N-
10N between 32W-54W. The eastern extension of the East Pacific
monsoon trough reaches from Costa Rica near 10N83W to low pres
1008 mb near 10N75W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted from 08.5N-11N between 76W-81W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak ridging extends over the N Gulf tonight with a 1017 mb high
centered over the NE Gulf. Winds across the Gulf are gentle to
moderate easterlies becoming southeast across the northwest
quarter. Seas are 1-3 ft across the basin. A surface trough
extends from SW Florida near 26N81.5W to NW Cuba near 23N82.5W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 24.5N-26N w of the
trough to 84W. Scattered moderate convection also dots the north
central Gulf from 24.5N to 29N between 87W and 93W.

For the forecast, the surface ridge extending across the northern
Gulf will drift will sink southward to along 28N tonight through
Sat. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail through
this time. The low level trough across the SW Florida waters and
the Straits of Florida will move slowly westward across the SE
Gulf today with active weather expected ahead of it. NE to E winds
will pulse to fresh each evening and night along the NW Yucatan
peninsula through Fri and to moderate Sat and Sun.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A moderate pressure gradient between a 1026 mb Bermuda High near
33N51W and lower pressure over the SW Caribbean monsoon trough
is producing fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central
Caribbean and along the south coast of Hispaniola, with gentle to
moderate E trades elsewhere. Seas are 6-9 ft in the central and W
Caribbean and 3-6 ft elsewhere. A large cluster of strong
convection is noted over eastern Nicaragua and extends eastward
and offshore into the Caribbean to 82.5W from 11.5N to 13.5N. An
extended tropical upper- tropospheric trough extends from 24N63W
to the W Caribbean near 18N87W. The TUTT is promoting scattered
moderate convection over the Lesser Antilles tonight.

For the forecast, marine conditions will continue to improve
across the western and central Caribbean today behind the exiting
tropical wave along 93W. A tropical wave along 70W will move
across the central Caribbean today and tonight, then across the
western Caribbean Thu night through Fri night. Winds and seas will
increase to fresh to strong early Thu through Sat over the south-
central Caribbean as high pressure builds north of the area in the
wake of this tropical wave. Winds and seas will diminish across
the basin Sun through Sun night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Surface ridging extends from 32N80W to a 1026 mb Bermuda High
near 33N51W. The weak pressure gradient from the ridge to lower
pressure along the ITCZ is forcing only moderate to fresh trades
across the tropical N Atlantic. Seas are 6-8 ft south of 25N east
of 65W and 4-6 ft elsewhere. The aforementioned TUTT is inducing a
surface trough from 28N65W to 21N69W, with isolated moderate
convection nearby. Scattered moderate convection is noted to the
east, from 22N-25N between 57W and 61W. To the east, generally
stable atmospheric conditions prevail across the Tropical Atlantic
east of 55W, with ample Saharan Air dominating between 12N-28N.

For the forecast west of 55W, the ridge extending from the
central Atlantic to northern Florida will persist through the
rest of the week to produce moderate to fresh trade winds south of
25N. Winds will pulse to strong off the northern coast of
Hispaniola each evening and night through the period. A cold front
will approach the SE U.S. coast over the weekend and produce
fresh SW winds across the far NW waters Sat shifting eastward to
between 65W and 75W on Sun.

$$
Stripling
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