[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041024
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Jul 4 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends along 20W in the eastern Atlantic, from
03N to 18N, moving W at 20 kt. Associated convection is isolated
and weak north of the monsoon trough. Scattered convection is
found south of the monsoon trough near the wave axis and described
below.

A tropical wave extends along 56W in the Atlantic, from 06N to
23N, moving W at 20 kt. This wave is moving through a generally
dryand stable atmospheric environment. Scattered moderate
convection is noted near the ITCZ 08N to 11N between 50W and 60W.

A strong tropical wave extends across the western Caribbean along
80W south of 22N. Scattered moderate convection is observed from
11N to 13N between 81W and 83.5W, and from 17N to 20N between 78W
and 82W. Fresh to strong winds are observed behind the wave
between 67W and 77W in the central Caribbean, where seas are 8-11
ft.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
to 08N22W. The ITCZ continues from 08N22W to the coast of French
Guiana near 05N52W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted south of the monsoon trough to 06N from 28W to the coast
of Africa. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to
07.5N between 37W and 42W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak 1020 mb high pressure in the NE gulf dominates the pattern
tonight. In the western Gulf, SE winds are moderate with 3-4 ft
seas. In the southern Gulf, E winds are moderate to locally fresh
near the NW Yucatan Peninsula with 3-5 ft seas. Conditions are
more favorable in the NE Gulf, with light to gentle winds and 1-3
ft seas. a few fine lines of low clouds extending from the Florida
Big Bend S-SW to near 27N have blossomed with scattered moderate
convection in recent hours.

For the forecast, a surface ridge will extend across the northern
Gulf through Tue night before drifting northward to along 30N
through mid week. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will
prevail through this time. Fresh NE to E winds will pulse at night
near the NW Yucatan peninsula through Tue night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section above for details on the
active wave in the central Caribbean Sea.

A strong wind surge continues across most of the central Caribbean
tonight behind the robust tropical wave along 80W. Seas are 8-11
ft across much of the area. Winds are moderate to fresh in the
eastern Caribbean with 6-8 ft seas. Winds are gentle to moderate
in the NW Caribbean with 3-5 ft seas.

For the forecast, the tropical wave along 80W will continue
moving quickly westward across the western Caribbean through Mon
night, followed by the surge of strong winds and high seas. Winds
and seas will begin to diminish over most of the basin early Tue
through mid week as the tropical wave moves west of the area. Another
tropical wave will move across the northeast Caribbean Tue and
across the central Caribbean Wed and Thu. Winds and seas will
increase again Thu over the south-central Caribbean as high
pressure builds north of the area following this tropical wave.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section above for details on the
waves moving across the basin.

A weak gradient south of the Atlantic high pressure ridge
dominates the pattern in the western Atlantic. Winds are gentle to
moderate from the SE to the north of 23N, while moderate to
locally fresh conditions prevail south of 23N from the southern
Bahamas to 60W. Active convection continues north of Hispaniola
tonight to 23.5N as the northern portion of the tropical wave
along 80W has sheared away from the wave and is interacting
favorably with a middle to upper-level trough across the southern
Bahamas. Seas are 6-7 ft across the Atlantic waters from north of
the Mona Passage to east of the central Bahamas. In the central
Atlantic, gentle E winds north of 28N increase to moderate to
locally fresh south of 28N. In the eastern Atlantic, moderate NE
winds dominate, with an area of fresh winds south of the Canary
Islands. Buoys and altimeter data agree that seas are generally
3-5 ft north of 27N and 5-7 ft south of 27N across the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, a ridge extending from the central
Atlantic to northeast Florida will persist through the week. The
northern portion of a strong tropical wave currently over central
Cuba is supporting fresh to strong wind, rough seas and active
weather across the Turks and Caicos Islands and southern Bahamas.
These winds and seas will gradually diminish through tonight
across the SE Bahamas as the wave moves westward, but strong winds
may still pulse off the northern coast of Hispaniola through Tue
night. This northern portion of the tropical wave will move W-NW
across the central Bahamas today and then across S Florida Tue and
act to enhance diurnal convection.

$$
Stripling
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