[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041756
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Jul 4 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 22W from near the Cabo
Verde Islands at 18N southward, and moving W at 15 to 20 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is seen from 06N to 09N between 20W
and 23W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near Barbados at 59W from 23N
southward, and moving W at 20 to 25 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 09N to 11N between 55W and 60W.

A robust Caribbean tropical wave is near 81W from western Cuba at
22N southward to western Panama. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is observed from the coast of Nicaragua and
Honduras northward to the Island of Youth.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough extends from near Nouakchott, Mauritania across
11N19W to 07N23W. An ITCZ continues from 07N23W across 06N35W to
east of French Guiana near 06N48W. Scattered moderate convection
is found south of the monsoon trough from 07N to 12N between the
Guinea-Bissau/Guinea coast and 20W. Scattered showers are present
up to 80 nm along either side of the ITCZ.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms along the Panama coast
and nearby Caribbean waters.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A mid-level low near New Orleans is producing isolated
thunderstorms south of Mobil, Alabama and across the east-central
Gulf. A surface trough is generating similar conditions near the
western Bay of Campeche. A surface ridge reaches southwestward
from a 1021 mb high over the northeast Gulf to near Tampico,
Mexico. It is providing light to gentle winds and 1 to 2 ft seas
across north-central and eastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE
winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will remain across the
northern Gulf through Tue night before drifting northward to along
30N through mid week. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas
will prevail through this time. Fresh NE to E winds will pulse at
night near the NW Yucatan peninsula through Tue night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for
convection in the Caribbean Sea.

Tight gradient between a 1028 mb high over the central Atlantic,
and eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough across the
southwestern Caribbean is sustaining a ENE to E trade-wind regime
for the entire basin except the southwestern portion. Fresh to
strong trades with 8 to 11 ft seas are present for the south-
central basin. Fresh trades and seas at 7 to 9 ft are found over
the north- central basin. Gentle to moderate trades and seas of 4
to 7 ft exist over the northwest and west-central basin. Light to
gentle monsoonal winds with 4 to 5 ft seas are evident for the
southwestern basin. Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 5 to 8
ft prevail for the eastern basin.

For the forecast, a strong tropical wave near 81/82W will
continue moving quickly westward across the western Caribbean
through tonight, then follow by a broad surge of strong winds and
high seas. Winds and seas will begin to diminish over most of the
basin early Tue through mid week as the tropical wave moves west
of the basin. Looking ahead, another tropical wave will move
across the eastern Caribbean Tue and across the central Caribbean
Wed and Thu. Winds and seas will increase again Thu over the
south-central Caribbean as high pressure builds north of the area
following this tropical wave.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Convergent southeasterly surface winds are coupling with an
upper-level trough in the vicinity to produce scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms over the central and southeast Bahamas,
and north of Hispaniola. A broad Atlantic ridge extends from a
1028 mb high over the central Atlantic at 32N48W to central
Florida. This feature is maintaining gentle to moderate NE to E
trades with 4 to 7 ft seas north of 8N between 25W and 61W/Lesser
Antilles. To the west, light to gentle E to ESE trades and seas
at 3 to 5 ft are seen north of Greater Antilles between 61W and
the Florida/Georgia coast. For the eastern Atlantic, NNE moderate
to fresh trades and seas of 4 to 7 ft are noted north of 17N
between the African coast and 25W. Gentle to moderate
southeasterly trades and monsoonal winds with 4 to 6 ft seas
prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will persist
through the week. The northern portion of a strong tropical wave
currently over western Cuba is supporting fresh to strong wind,
rough seas and active weather across the Turks and Caicos Islands,
and southern Bahamas. These winds and seas will gradually diminish
through tonight across the southeastern Bahamas as the wave moves
westward, but strong winds may still pulse off the northern coast
of Hispaniola through Tue night.

$$

Chan
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